This week's topic
Under the dual carbon target, the problem of "neck sticking" in the development land of wind power station is becoming more and more prominent, and the industrial supporting requirements of various regions further increase the cost of development land. This week, we will explore the construction land value of existing wind turbine units from the perspective of photovoltaic and wind power land.
Core view
Scenery belongs to low-density energy, and the shortage of land for large-scale development is becoming more and more prominent
Scenery belongs to low-density energy. According to Jiang Yi, academician of the Chinese Academy of engineering, in addition to some offshore wind power, 3 Tunghsu Azure Renewable Energy Co.Ltd(000040) 000 square kilometers of land or space will be needed in the future to meet the actual development needs of renewable energy. At the same time, under the restrictions of the "three lines" of basic farmland, ecological protection and urban development, the problem of insufficient land supply is becoming more and more prominent, and the shortage of land resources may become the biggest obstacle to the development of photovoltaic projects.
Under the general policy of streamlining administration and delegating power in the 14th five year plan, the management authority of photovoltaic power stations is further delegated to provincial competent departments, and local industrial supporting requirements further increase the land cost of wind power and photovoltaic development.
Onshore wind power: reuse of old wind power sites, and the IRR of full investment may be increased by 0.6pct to 6.8%
As the 20-year design service life approaches, the units installed in early 2000 are already aging. We expect that the cumulative decommissioned unit capacity will exceed 1.2 million KW during the 14th Five Year Plan period. In the land for wind power projects, except for the construction roads during the construction period, the land for wind turbine units, unit substations, power collection lines, step-up substations and operation management centers belong to permanent land and are managed according to the construction land. Considering the 20-year service life of wind turbines, we believe that the new wind turbines can continue to use the original wind power site.
According to the difference of terrain, the construction land cost of wind power project is 0.13-0.45 yuan / W. generally speaking, the construction land cost of wind power project accounts for 2.5% - 6.5% of the system construction cost. We estimate that the IRR of the total investment of the new wind turbines that use the old site can be increased by 0.6pct to 6.8%, and the payback period of the total investment can be shortened by 0.5 to 9.9 years.
Centralized photovoltaic: the land for photovoltaic array is non permanent, and the reuse value of the site is relatively low
At present, the cost of centralized photovoltaic land in the central and eastern regions is climbing rapidly. The rent in Hubei and Hunan is about 600 yuan / mu / year, and the land rent in Shandong, Jiangsu and Hebei is as high as 700800 yuan / mu / year. According to the photovoltaic information, the land rent of a photovoltaic bidding project in Zhejiang soared to 2500 yuan / mu / year. Overall, the cost of construction land in photovoltaic power station projects accounts for about 3.5% of the system cost.
In the centralized photovoltaic project land, the photovoltaic array land with the largest area is non permanent land, and the land lease term is about 25 years, which is consistent with the operation period of photovoltaic power station. Therefore, the reuse value of the site is relatively low.
Investment advice
Under the dual carbon target, the problem of "neck sticking" in the development land of wind power station is becoming more and more prominent, and the industrial supporting facilities around the country require to further increase the low cost of development land. Most of the existing wind turbine construction land belongs to permanent land. Therefore, after the old units retire, the new wind turbine can use the original site, save 2.5% - 6.5% of the system construction cost, and the full investment IRR may be increased by 0.6pct. In terms of specific targets, new energy operators suggest paying attention to [Longyuan Power] [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ] [ Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) ] [ Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) ]; Suggestions on the subject of thermal power transformation into new energy focus on [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (a + H)] [China Resources Power] [ Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) (a + H)].
Risk tips: policy promotion is less than expected, macroeconomic changes, power demand is less than expected, and the calculation is subjective.
