“Past and present life” of new citizens
New citizens initially refer to migrant workers who have lived in cities for a long time and have relatively fixed jobs, and then the scope of reference has gradually expanded. The notice on strengthening the financial services of new citizens further defined the scope of new citizens, including various groups of people who had not been registered residence or registered residence for three years, including, but not limited to, migrant workers, new graduates and so on. From the perspective of group composition, the floating population in urban and rural areas and cities is still a new city democracy. From the perspective of geographical distribution, the floating population mainly migrates from the three eastern provinces to the core urban agglomerations such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Beijing Tianjin Hebei and Chengdu Chongqing, focusing on the first and second tier cities. From the perspective of the formation reasons, the new citizens are special products under China’s registered residence system. Whether the right place to enter the registered residence and enjoy the same rights with the local residents are the important factors for transforming the floating population into “new citizens”.
Micro dismantling of housing demand for new citizens: a two-way game between payment capacity and registered residence policy
Influencing factors of housing demand of new citizens: 1) economic factors such as income / house price; 2) the registered residence system, which is closely tied to registered residence and education, medical care, housing / pension, and other social welfare and rights, is the hidden cost of new residents settlement, which is the inequality of public services enjoyed by residents in the field and in other places. Therefore, behind the housing demand of new citizens is the two-way game between payment ability and registered residence policy. In the case of high house price level, low income level, difficult settlement and high hidden settlement cost, the floating population generally tends to rent rather than buy houses in the inflow land. According to the sampling survey data of Guanghua of Peking University in 2019, the proportion of migrant workers buying houses is only 19.5%. Considering that migrant workers are the majority of new citizens, we estimate that the proportion of renting / buying houses for new citizens is about 8:2.
Macro market of new citizens’ housing demand: the possibility of releasing trillions of space
According to the calculation results of relevant research and teams, the consumption income elasticity of the floating population (0.70) is significantly lower than that of the urban population (0.87). The citizenization of the floating population can release the consumption demand of this part of the population. The calculation results show that under optimistic circumstances, the consumption elasticity will be released and completed within five years, and the driven consumption increment can reach 242 billion yuan, accounting for about 0.16% of GDP; Under conservative circumstances, the consumption elasticity will be released within ten years, and the consumption increment can reach 567.9 billion yuan, accounting for about 0.29% of GDP, which is of positive significance for stimulating domestic demand. From the perspective of housing model, we estimate that the current rental / house purchase ratio of the floating population is 8:2. With the increase of the floating population’s willingness to buy houses brought by the process of citizenization, under the two assumptions that the rental / house purchase ratio of the floating population becomes 7:3 and 6:4 after the completion of citizenization, the calculation results show that under the optimistic situation, the amount increment brought by the release of house purchase demand is 1486.6 billion yuan and 2900.6 billion yuan respectively under the two rental and purchase ratios; Under conservative circumstances, it is 1001.6 billion yuan and 1918 billion yuan respectively. From the perspective of housing area, under the two assumptions that the rent purchase ratio of the floating population becomes 7:3 and 6:4 after the completion of citizenization, the calculation results show that under the optimistic situation, the increment of the demand (area) for house purchase of the floating population is 1.255 billion square meters and 2.510 billion square meters respectively; Under conservative circumstances, it is 1.319 billion and 2.638 billion respectively. The amount corresponding to the increase of house purchase area is much higher than the amount that can be released by housing consumption. There is a gap between the ideal demand of new citizens and their actual purchasing power.
How to open the policy space in the future: reasonable relaxation of registered residence restrictions and multi-level housing security
Helping new citizens truly integrate into the city is the primary premise to release the needs of new citizens and then make up for the difference between their ideal needs and real purchasing power. We believe that the housing arrangement of new citizens is a series of institutional frameworks from bottom-up, transition, secure housing to improvement. The traditional commercial housing will be opened according to its lagging improvement demand. At the current stage, relaxing the application conditions for public rental housing and continuing to increase the supply of indemnificatory rental housing and public rental housing will be an important starting point to meet the housing needs of new citizens; It is the most feasible way to reduce the difficulty of new citizens’ access to financial services or make up for the difference between their ideal needs and real purchasing power in the short term.
Grasp the beta of loose policy structure and the alpha of M & A
Investment suggestion: the future industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Continuous recommendation: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Xuhui holding group; 3) Quality property management: Country Garden service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service.
Prompt of credit risk spread; The decline of industry sales exceeded expectations; Because the implementation of urban policies is less than expected; Subjective measurement risk
