Core view
Compared with last week, the turnover of new houses increased this week and that of second-hand houses decreased. The number of new houses sold in 47 cities this week was 27000, up 1.0% month on month and down 56.9% year-on-year; The number of new houses sold in 18 large and medium-sized cities was 19000, up 15.1% month on month and down 51.2% year-on-year; 1、 The number of new houses sold in the second and third tier cities increased by + 32.7%, + 5.8% and + 21.4% month on month respectively, and the year-on-year growth rates were + 10.5%, – 10.7% and + 12.6% respectively. The number of second-hand housing transactions in 16 cities was 11000, an increase of 8.5% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 45.4%; The number of second-hand housing transactions in 12 large and medium-sized cities was 10000, down 9.8% month on month and 46.2% year-on-year; 1、 The number of second-hand housing transactions in second and third tier cities increased by + 15.8%, + 28.9% and + 15.7% month on month respectively, and the year-on-year growth rates were – 34.2%, – 51.8% and – 53.9% respectively.
Compared with the previous week, the inventory of new houses decreased, and the decontamination cycle increased. The inventory of new houses in 15 cities was 1.022 million units, down 0.3% month on month, and the decontamination cycle was 16.6 months, up 7.6% month on month; The inventory of new houses in 8 large and medium-sized cities was 557000, with a month on month decrease of 0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. The decontamination cycle was 11.9 months, with a month on month increase of 8.0%; The inventory of new houses in the first tier cities was 264000 units, down 0.7% month on month. The deconvolution cycle was 11.6 months, up 0.9 months month on month. The inventory of new houses in the second tier cities was 204000 units, down 0.3% month on month. The deconvolution cycle was 13 months, up 1.6 months month on month. The inventory of new houses in the third tier cities was 89000 units, up 0.2% month on month. The deconvolution cycle was 21.5 months, down 0.3 months.
Compared with last week, the overall land market fell and rose in price, and the land premium rate decreased. The number of all types of land sold in Baicheng was 143, with a month on month decrease of 18.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 64.4%; The planned construction area of the land traded was 9.68 million square meters, a month on month decrease of 36.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 63.1%; The total land transaction price was 17.9 billion yuan, an increase of 35.6% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 73.0%; The average floor price of land traded was 1844 yuan / m2, up 114.2% month on month and down 26.9% year on year; The land premium rate of Baicheng was 2.44%, down 56.0% month on month and 85.2% year-on-year.
Investment advice
In March, the downward trend of housing loan interest rate was significant. According to the data released by the shell Research Institute, the loan interest rates of the first and second homes in 103 key cities in March 2022 were 5.34% and 5.60% respectively, down 13 and 15bp respectively month on month, the largest decline in a single month since 2019; The average lending cycle is 34 days, which is 4 days shorter than that of the previous month. In addition, this week, Harbin cancelled the “sales restriction” policy implemented for nearly four years (the regulation issued in May 18 that all newly purchased commercial houses within six districts of the main urban area can be listed and traded only after three years from the date of signing the commercial house online signing contract). We believe that this adjustment may mean that the current policy relaxation has entered a new stage, that is, from the relaxation of financial policy to the relaxation of the “five limits”, which can be used as a reference for other cities, or more local governments will amend or abolish policies that are inappropriate and do not meet the current market situation according to their own actual situation. From the perspective of sector investment, we believe that the alternation of the first and second quarters is still a good allocation window period, and the expectation of policy improvement is still strengthened. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the opportunities of the real estate sector. We suggest paying attention to four main lines: 1) leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Regional central state-owned enterprises or regional leading private enterprises with high financial report security and stable cash flow: China Construction Development International, Yuexiu real estate, Midea real estate, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) . 3) Under the influence of macro and industrial policies such as interest rate reduction, elastic real estate enterprises with large marginal income: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) . 4) At present, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination and accelerated concentration, as well as the recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng life, poly property, Zhonghai property and xinchengyue service.
Risk tips
Real estate regulation continues to upgrade; Sales fell more than expected; Financing continued to tighten.
