Core view
[market performance] from March 21 to March 25, the CSI 300 index closed at 417457, down 1.98% in one week and 15.50% year to date; The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 321224 points, down 1.27% in one week and 11.75% year to date; Among shenwanyi industries, real estate, coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors performed better, among which the transportation industry fell by 2.39% in the week, ranking 21st; Since the beginning of the year, the transportation industry has decreased by 8.38%, ranking No. 8; In terms of molecular industries, the top three performing industries in the transportation industry are bus (+ 2.94%), expressway (- 0.26%) and port (- 1.37%).
[key information] in 2022, in the international shipping market, it is expected that the supply and demand of shipping volume in the dry bulk cargo transportation market will tend to balance, and the freight rate is in the recovery and rising cycle. Tanker transport demand is expected to pick up, and external uncertainties may lead to increased freight rate fluctuations. The global demand for container shipping is expected to remain strong on the whole. The spot market freight rate of liner companies is expected to remain high in the first half of the year. The development of overseas epidemic and port congestion in the second half of the year will be the main factors determining the market trend. (Ministry of transport)
[Key announcement] 1) China Merchants Energy Shipping Co.Ltd(601872) : in 2021, the operating revenue reached 24.412 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.97%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.609 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.52%. 2) Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited(600377) : the operating revenue will reach 13.793 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 71.71%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.179 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.58%.
[views of this week]
In February, the express business revenue and industry concentration increased year-on-year. In February, the express business income above Designated Size reached 65.710 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27.42%; The express business volume above Designated Size reached 6.911 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 49.65%; The single ticket income of express business above designated size was 9.51 yuan / ticket, a year-on-year increase of – 14.86%; The service concentration index of Express brand CR8 reached 85.30%, with a year-on-year increase of 5.40pct.
S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) due to the adjustment of business structure, the revenue growth of express business is slower than that of Tongda system. In February, the express business revenue of Tongda Department ( Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) ) totaled 7.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 84.62%; The express business volume reached 2.906 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 79.49%; The average single ticket income of express business was 2.51 yuan / ticket, a year-on-year increase of + 2.85%. In February, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) ‘s express business revenue was 9.849 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 6.72%; The single ticket income of express business was 15.44 yuan / ticket, a year-on-year increase of + 2.19%; The express business volume was 638 million tickets, a year-on-year increase of -8.73%. The express business volume of Tongda Department soared in February, mainly due to the increase of e-commerce business volume during the Spring Festival and the deep binding between Tongda department business and e-commerce S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) ‘s express business revenue and business volume are not growing as fast as that of Tongda system, mainly because the company has taken the initiative to optimize the product structure and reduce the number of products with low gross profit since the second half of 2021.
Policies restrict vicious price competition, and industry leaders have more competitive advantages. The homogenization degree of express industry is strong. Due to factors such as scale effect, the average single ticket price of the industry shows a downward trend. In order to gain market share, new entrants often use “price war” as a means. However, in April and June 2021, the Zhejiang provincial government, the Ministry of transport and other departments issued policies to restrict disorderly competition at prices lower than the cost, and the leading advantage of express delivery showed signs of expansion. From the perspective of the industry, since June 2021, the price decline in the express industry has been narrowing, and changed from negative to positive in January 2022, but decreased year-on-year in February 2022; The year-on-year decline in the single ticket price of the industry oligarch access system narrowed faster than the industry average, and began to change from negative to positive in September 2021. In terms of business revenue and business volume, the year-on-year growth rate of Tongda began to exceed the industry level in July 2021 and December 2021 respectively. Since February 2021, the year-on-year decline of Express brand service concentration index CR8 has narrowed and continued to rise in 2022. Leading express enterprises have leading advantages in the layout of storage network and transportation capacity, and are more likely to have advantages in technology and capital. Under the background that the competition in the express industry is no longer dominated by “price war”, the “Matthew effect” of the express industry may appear. On the one hand, the profit center of leading enterprises is expected to be improved by virtue of cost advantages; On the other hand, the means of industry competition has gradually shifted to technological transformation, improving the automation rate and expanding diversified services (intra city distribution, real-time distribution, etc.), and the leading technology and capital advantages will help to build a new moat.
Investment advice
At the stage when the express industry changes from price competition to competition in improving operating efficiency and expanding diversified services, the scale effect, technology and capital advantages of the leaders in the express industry are expected to play a more significant role, and the industry concentration and the profit center of the leaders are expected to continue to improve. The relevant targets include S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) , etc.
Risk tips
Policy changes; Deterioration of industry competition pattern; The scale expansion of e-commerce was less than expected.
