Key points:
The month on month decrease in installed capacity in February is a normal seasonal fluctuation
In February 2022, the installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery was 13.7gwh (+ 145%), with a month on month decrease of 15.5%; From January to February 2022, the cumulative installed capacity is 29.9gwh (+ 110%).
The installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery is highly related to the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China, and the pace is basically the same. The month on month decrease of installed capacity in February is a normal seasonal fluctuation, and the month on month decrease is small. The following March will usher in the end of season sales impulse of the car market. However, considering the repeated epidemic in China, it is difficult for the installed capacity in March to have a beautiful performance.
China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery production is booming, and the production capacity far exceeds the installed capacity, or because the power battery enterprises do not stop production and rush to prepare goods during the Spring Festival
In February 2022, the production of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery was 31.8gwh (+ 236%), with a month on month increase of 7.1%; The cumulative production from January to February 2022 was 61.4 (+ 186%) China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery production is booming.
The production of power batteries corresponds to the demand for lithium battery materials in the upstream, while the installed capacity of power batteries is directly linked to the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the downstream, which is close to the market demand of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China. The ratio of annual production to installed capacity in 2021 is as high as 1.42, and it is normal that the production far exceeds the installed capacity. However, from January to February 2022, there was an abnormal significant deviation between production and installed capacity. Considering that the power battery enterprises did not stop production and rush to prepare goods during the Spring Festival and Tesla's domestic re export, the gap between subsequent production and installed capacity will converge.
Pure electric buses are still weak, and pure electric special vehicles benefit from policy dividends
The production and sales of pure electric passenger cars and pure electric special vehicles are seriously affected by the epidemic. The installed capacity in 2020 is 11.8gwh (- 17.5%) and 4.3gwh (- 20.5%) respectively. However, since 2021, the two have been significantly differentiated, and the demand for pure electric buses is weak; Pure electric special vehicles benefit from the intensive replacement of special vehicles driven by policies.
Average charge upward fatigue
In the middle of February 2022, the average charging capacity of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles decreased by 43.6 degrees for two consecutive months, which has dropped to a record low, mainly due to the decline in the sales of pure electric buses and pure electric special vehicles at the beginning of the year. The monthly data of average electrification of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China fluctuates greatly due to the structure of installed models in that month. Generally speaking, the average electrification continued to rise from 2018 to 2019, but began to fall from the second half of 2020. It is expected that the average charging capacity is expected to stabilize in 2022.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) batteries will be about 215gwh (+ 39%) and the production capacity will be about 323gwh (+ 47%) in 2022, implying that the forecast for the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in the middle of 2022 is about 5 million (+ 42%). 2022 will still be a year of booming production and sales of power batteries. The industry will grow rapidly, and the performance of relevant listed companies is worth looking forward to. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading companies of power batteries and lithium battery materials. Maintain the "overweight" rating of the industry.
Risk tips
The new energy vehicle industry is greatly affected by the policy and the boom fluctuates violently; Competition in the power battery industry has intensified.
