Raw material prices continued to rise, and new energy vehicle prices adjusted prices again to transmit pressure
Since November 2021, the price of lithium salt has continued to rise, resulting in great cost pressure on the battery end. Since mid March, China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile enterprises have generally raised prices for the second time, in an attempt to transmit the pressure brought by the rising cost of power batteries, chips and other parts. Gasoline prices continued to soar, rising by more than 20% at the end of March over the beginning of the year. We assume that the fuel consumption of fuel vehicles is 9 liters per 100 kilometers, the life cycle of the whole vehicle is 200000 kilometers, and the price rise of electric vehicles of the same level is 18000 yuan. We calculated that the increase of gasoline by 2 yuan / L corresponds to the new cost of fuel vehicles by 18 yuan per hundred kilometers, and the increase of selling price corresponds to the new cost of electric vehicles by 9 yuan per hundred kilometers. After the price increase, electric vehicles still have a significant cost performance ratio. We believe that the price increase will affect the short-term order volume, but based on the gradual improvement of the cost performance and product power of new energy vehicles, the annual sales volume is expected to remain at about 5.5 million.
The Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car market performed well in mid February, and the high price of lithium battery main materials stabilized at the end of March
(1) vehicle end: in mid February, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles was 334000, with a year-on-year increase of + 206% and a month on month increase of - 23%. After deducting the impact of the seven-day Spring Festival holiday, the average daily sales volume in February reached 16000, higher than the average daily sales volume of 14000 in January. In mid February, the narrow penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars reached 21.8%, increased by 5.2pct month on month, and the penetration rate returned to the highest level in history. In February, the European eight Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car market warmed up month on month, with sales reaching 142000, a year-on-year increase of + 51% and a month on month increase of + 23%. In February, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in the United States was 60000, with a year-on-year increase of + 52% and a month on month increase of - 4%; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 5.6%, down 0.3pct month on month.
(2) battery end: in February, the installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery was 13.7gwh, with a year-on-year increase of + 146% and a month on month increase of - 15%. Among them, the installed capacity of ternary battery is 5.8gwh, with a month on month ratio of - 20%; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery was 7.8gwh, with a month on month ratio of - 12%, accounting for 56.89% of the market, with a year-on-year ratio of + 1.95pct. In February Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) installed capacity was 6.57gwh, accounting for 48.0% of China's total Byd Company Limited(002594) / zhongchuangxin Airlines ranked second and third, with market share of 21.2/8.4% respectively.
(3) material side: the price of lithium salt continued to rise in the middle and first ten days of March, driving the price rise of cathode materials; In late March, the price remained stable and the high price of cathode stabilized. The presence of the environmental protection supervision team in Inner Mongolia and other places affected the graphitization capacity, and the prices of superimposed coke increased, while the price of negative electrode increased slightly. The diaphragm is still in short supply, and the price remains stable. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate continued to weaken due to the game between the supply and demand sides. With the release of new production capacity, the future price may continue to decline. Driven by the price reduction of hexafluorophosphate, the electrolyte price has been slightly corrected recently.
Investment suggestion: pay attention to the tight supply links and the benefit targets of new technologies
The market for new energy vehicles and new energy vehicles continues to be strong in terms of production and sales. We're looking at tight supply and new technology layout. Leading underestimate. Target: 1) 4680 technology benefits: 1) 4680 technology benefits: 4680 technology benefit areas: early laid battery companies ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 's: 1) 4680 technology benefits: early laid battery companies ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) \ ), new lithium salt ( Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) ); 2) Tight supply link: diaphragm ( Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) ); 3) Consumer battery enterprises with import substitution and smooth price rise: electric tool battery ( Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) ) and consumer 3C battery ( Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) ).
Risk warning: policy change risk; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The production and sales of electric vehicles were less than expected.
