China: the direction of carbon reduction is gradually clear, and the internal differentiation of high energy consuming industries is intensified. In the context of double carbon goals, the release of energy conservation and carbon reduction guidelines for high energy consuming industries has gradually clarified the carbon reduction path of each sub industry, and intensified the differentiation of product prosperity in high energy consuming industries. On the supply side, high energy consuming industries will face increasingly stringent supply restrictions, and backward production capacity will be eliminated at an accelerated pace, while leading enterprises are expected to rely on their own advantages for transformation and upgrading, and further enhance the industry concentration through capacity replacement; On the demand side, China’s economic recovery is superimposed on strong exports, and the demand pattern continues to improve.
Ranked by the capacity increase above the energy consumption benchmark: coking, coal to ethylene glycol, yellow phosphorus, ammonium phosphate, calcium carbide, caustic soda, coal to methanol and synthetic ammonia. According to the increase range of production capacity above the energy consumption benchmark: coking, calcium carbide, PX, caustic soda, coal to methanol, soda ash, ammonium phosphate, etc.
Abroad: the continuous rise of electricity price brings the opportunity of electricity price arbitrage of high power consumption chemicals in China. At present, overseas electricity prices continue to rise. Under the influence of short-term energy supply and demand mismatch and geographical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it is expected to remain high in the next two years. According to our calculation, at present, the cost of generating electricity per kilowatt hour from coal and natural gas in Europe is about 1.31 and 3.10 yuan / kilowatt hour respectively, while the corresponding cost of generating electricity per kilowatt hour from low-cost energy in Western China is only about 0.32 and 0.97 yuan / kilowatt hour respectively. Taking yellow phosphorus and industrial silicon, which consume more electricity per unit, as an example, according to the current average industrial electricity price level in Western China and Europe, China’s corresponding single ton products can save energy costs of 23000 yuan and 20000 yuan respectively, which has a great advantage of electricity price arbitrage. If the electricity price in Xinjiang is 0.3 yuan and that in Europe is 3 yuan, the price advantage of China’s single ton industrial silicon is more than 35000 yuan.
The current round of rising energy prices has significantly pushed up the cost of overseas products, and chemicals are expected to reproduce the situation in 2020. Overseas reduce the operating load due to high costs, while Chinese enterprises realize the transfer of export capacity through low costs and earn a high price difference. The varieties with high comprehensive power consumption corresponding to unit output value are mainly recommended, such as caustic soda, calcium carbide, yellow phosphorus, industrial silicon and synthetic ammonia.
Related targets: (1) chlor alkali industry represented by calcium carbide and caustic soda, focusing on: Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) , Xinjiang Tianye Co.Ltd(600075) ; (2) The agrochemical industry represented by yellow phosphorus, ammonium phosphate and synthetic ammonia focuses on: Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) ; (3) The coal chemical industry represented by coking and coal to ethylene glycol focuses on: Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) , Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) ; (4) Enterprises that enjoy low-cost electricity or have low-cost energy supply in Western China will focus on: Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) ; (5) The silicon chemical industry represented by industrial silicon focuses on: Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , Zhejiang Xinan Chemical Indusyrial Group Co.Ltd(600596) .
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in energy prices; Risk of tightening the assessment of double carbon policy; Downstream demand is lower than expected; Rapid downward risk of overseas electricity price; Risk of epidemic spread affecting production
