\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 613 Beijing United Information Technology Co.Ltd(603613) )
Performance review
On March 27, 2022, the company issued the announcement of pre increase of performance in the first quarter of 2022. The company expects to realize revenue of 11.6-12.2 billion yuan in 2022q1, with a year-on-year increase of 90.91% ~ 100.78%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 145153 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 85.85% ~ 96.10%; It is estimated that the non net profit deducted will be 140148 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 83.70% ~ 94.19%. The growth of the company's performance in this period is mainly due to the growth of online commodity trading business income.
Business analysis
Despite the epidemic, the company's performance continued to increase. In 2022q1, the growth centers of the company's revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company were 95.85% / 90.98% respectively, which was consistent with the performance growth from January to February previously disclosed by the company (revenue + 95% year-on-year and net profit attributable to the parent company + 90% year-on-year). This means that the company's operation is not affected by the epidemic in March, and the growth rate in March is similar to that from January to February.
The epidemic has changed the ordering habits of industrial users, or benefited the long-term development of e-commerce for industrial products: after resuming the epidemic in 2020, Beijing United Information Technology Co.Ltd(603613) launched the "industrial chain war epidemic plan" in February 2020. By actively expanding the global supply of goods, launching the live broadcast of industrial products / raw materials, and purchasing hundreds of groups, the crisis has been turned into an opportunity and a large number of new users have been obtained. Since then, the trading volume growth of the platform has continued to increase. We believe that the epidemic will accelerate the industrial chain users to turn to industrial products e-commerce, and the change of customer habits will benefit the long-term development of the company's industrial products e-commerce platform.
Industrial Internet is the direction of policy support and is optimistic about the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of e-commerce of industrial products: the "14th five year plan" for digital economy development and the "government work report" in 2022 set the industrial digital economy as the main development goal in the future. Industrial digital transformation and industrial Internet are conducive to optimizing the overall business efficiency and business environment of the industry. Its development is the general trend in the future and has also been supported by policies. As a core application of industrial digital economy, industrial e-commerce is in the stage of rapid growth of penetration. According to the calculation of iResearch consulting, the penetration rate of e-commerce of China's industrial products in 2020 is only about 4.5%; In 2025, the penetration rate of e-commerce of industrial products is expected to reach 13.2%. The improvement of penetration rate will be a core growth driver of China's e-commerce industry of industrial products.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we believe that Beijing United Information Technology Co.Ltd(603613) has the potential of horizontal expansion and vertical deep excavation of the industrial chain, and its major "Duoduo" industrial products e-commerce platforms are expected to continue to drive the company's performance growth. We maintain that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is predicted to be RMB 570 / 930 / 1.48 billion, with a corresponding year-on-year growth rate of 89% / 61% / 60% respectively. The closing price on March 28 corresponds to a PE of 68x / 42x / 26x respectively from 2021 to 23, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the price of industrial products fluctuates, the new platform is less than expected, the loss of users, the development of industrial Internet strategy is less than expected, and the industry competition is intensified
