\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 59 Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) )
Key points
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, which realized an operating revenue of 7.444 billion yuan (+ 45.00% YoY), a net profit attributable to the parent of 1.661 billion yuan (+ 41.68% YoY), and a non net profit attributable to the parent of 1.341 billion yuan (+ 67.46% YoY). Meanwhile, the company issued the 2022 A-share equity incentive plan (Draft).
Equity incentive to mobilize the enthusiasm of business backbone. According to the company’s 2022 A-share equity incentive plan (Draft), it is proposed to grant 1548800 restricted shares, accounting for 0.20% of the company’s current total share capital; There are 403 planned incentive objects, including core management personnel, middle-level management personnel and technical backbone, grass-roots management personnel and technical personnel, excluding directors and supervisors. Based on the revenue of 2021, the assessment objectives of revenue growth rate from 2022 to 2025 are no less than 20%, 40%, 60% and 80% respectively.
High growth of various businesses, rapid growth of small molecule cdmo and strong demand for overseas CGT.
1) laboratory services: in 2021, the revenue will be 4.566 billion yuan (+ 41.09% YoY), and the gross profit margin will be 43.47% (+ 0.70pct YoY); Among them, the income growth rate of Bioscience is higher than that of laboratory chemistry. In 2021, the company continued to expand the scale of laboratories in Ningbo and Beijing, and began to layout laboratories in Qingdao, Chongqing and other cities. By the end of 2021, the number of laboratory attendants of the company was 7136, an increase of 1579 over the same period of last year. With the expansion of local laboratories and personnel recruitment, the company’s laboratory business is expected to maintain high growth.
2) CMC (small molecule cdmo): in 2021, the revenue will be 1.746 billion yuan (+ 42.90% YoY), and the gross profit margin will be 34.92% (+ 2.20pct YoY); Among them, about 80% of the income comes from preclinical to clinical phase II. In terms of production capacity, Shaoxing phase I will put 200m3 into operation in mid January 2022 and 400m3 is expected to be put into operation in 2022q2; The company completed the acquisition of cramlington production base in the UK in January 2022, increasing the production capacity by more than 100m3. To sum up, in 2022, the release of the company’s late clinical and commercial capacity outside China will be accelerated, the end-to-end service capacity of small molecules will continue to be strengthened, and the revenue contribution of cdmo late business is expected to increase.
3) clinical research services: in 2021, the revenue was 956 million yuan (+ 51.96% YoY), and the gross profit margin was 10.31% (-8.48pct YoY). The low gross profit margin was mainly due to the advanced investment in personnel. In 2021, the company continued to strengthen the M & A integration of global clinical resources.
4) macromolecule and CGT services: revenue of 151 million yuan (+ 466.58% YoY), exceeding market expectations. For China’s macromolecular business, the company is building two 2000L production capacity in Ningbo and is expected to undertake macromolecular GMP production service projects in 2023h1. Overseas CGT business, American absorption mainly provides analysis and testing services, with strong downstream demand; ABL in the UK will start external services in 2022, and the loss is expected to narrow in 2022.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company is a global leader in preclinical cro. With the improvement of the industry competitiveness of front-end technology platform and back-end capacity, the diversion logic of laboratory service cmc-cdmo is strengthened. We predict that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-23 years will be 2.196/2.9 billion yuan (up 2.2% / down 1.4% respectively compared with the original forecast), and the new forecast net profit attributable to the parent company in 24 years will be 3.832 billion yuan. According to the latest equity calculation, EPS will be 2.77/3.65/4.83 yuan respectively, and the current price corresponding to PE will be 42 / 31 / 24 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: repeated outbreaks in China; The downstream prosperity is lower than expected; Increased competition; New business is less than expected
