\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Events
According to the official public information of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , the digital marketing APP, the “I Moutai”, will be officially launched on the official account of the Moutai company. In addition, the company released the main financial data of 2021 and the operation of 2022q1, which showed that: 1) in 2021, the company’s revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 11.7% and 12.3% year-on-year (slightly higher than the previous performance express); 2) According to the company’s preliminary accounting, the company expects to achieve revenue of about 33.1 billion in 2022q1, with a year-on-year increase of about 18%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 16.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 19%.
Key investment points
New products, new channels and new platforms, “I Maotai” e-commerce platform went online as scheduled
As we had expected, “I Maotai” will be launched as scheduled in the near future, which will further supplement the sales channels:
1) Maotai new product – I Maotai: in the trial operation stage, consumers can make an appointment to purchase four products in “I Maotai”: 53 ° 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor (year of the renyin tiger) with the purchase price / retail price of 2399 / 2499 yuan respectively, 53 ° 500ml Maotai 1935 with the purchase price / retail price of 1088 / 1188 yuan respectively, 53 ° 375ml 2 (year of the renyin tiger) with the purchase price / retail price of 3499 / 3599 yuan respectively 53 degree 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (rare product) with purchase price / retail price of 4499 / 4599 yuan respectively. At present, “I Maotai” does not directly sell 500ml of Feitian Maotai liquor. It will integrate and access 12 third-party e-commerce platforms (jd.com, tmall, etc.) to provide consumers with rush purchase information for purchasing Feitian Maotai liquor. In addition, the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor brewing technology and brand culture were also displayed in “I Maotai”;
2) Maotai new channel – I Maotai: “I Maotai” adopts the linkage mechanism of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) opening up, and adopts the mode of “Registration – Review – appointment (select self operated store / exclusive store) – lottery number – successful appointment – offline self operated store / exclusive store pick-up”, “real name ID card registration, designated store purchase application system, and the order of purchase registration is not related to the success rate of purchase (the purchase exceeds the amount put in the store, using a similar lottery method)”.
3) Maotai new platform – I Maotai: I stands for Internet, individual and international. It is an important part of “smart Maotai construction”. It can directly link to the service center and provide functions such as anti-counterfeiting and rights protection, anti-counterfeiting traceability, dealer query and so on. Maotai will deeply practice the “five in one marketing law”, promote “digital marketing”, help the construction of “smart Maotai” and build a “I Maotai” shopping channel.
We believe that: 1) the ex factory price of the four non-standard new products on the line is high, which is conducive to thickening the profit of the joint stock company (the channel profit is about 100 yuan); 2) The company took the lead in launching four new products to prepare for the subsequent launch of more products. It is expected that some Maotai Liquor / Series liquor of this year’s increment will be launched to the e-commerce platform (it is expected that Feitian Maotai will be launched before May); 2) On the basis of the former Maotai cloud business, “I Maotai” has added a new customer member management system / random drawing of lots / offline delivery with ID card / participation of exclusive stores (exclusive stores pick up goods from their own stores for preparation) / higher change and fairer digitization, laying the foundation for more accurate delivery, more reasonable channel profit distribution and stronger channel control; 3) Provide a product release platform for non-standard products.
There is no need to worry about price fluctuation. The launch of e-commerce platform is an important measure for marketing reform
The main reasons for the recent price fluctuation of Feitian Maotai are: 1) consumption off-season; 2) Disturbed by the epidemic, high-end consumption is temporarily restrained; 3) Rumors about the launch of the new e-commerce platform (it is not clear whether to launch Feitian Maotai) prompted some dealers to sell goods for a short time. We believe that:
1) in the short term, the fluctuation of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) rating is mainly affected by market sentiment, which is a short-term phenomenon. Considering that the demand for high-end liquor is still “in short supply”, there is limited downward space for the rating of Feitian Maotai;
2) in the medium and long term, the core significance of the launch of e-commerce platform lies in the further reform and optimization of channels. It is expected that the increase in the launch of Feitian Maotai will help balance the price system and deepen the reform of prices and channels.
The performance of 22q1 is in line with expectations and is optimistic that Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) subsequent accelerated development and reform exceed expectations
Performance level: Recently, the company released 22q1 performance express, which shows that the company expects to achieve revenue of about 33.1 billion in 2022q1, with a year-on-year increase of about 18%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company will be about 16.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 19%. The high performance increase is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of non-standard and direct sales channels. Recently, the dealers basically completed the payment in March, and the non-standard shipment volume is large. They are optimistic about the high growth certainty of 22q1 performance. At the policy level: (1) ding Xiongjun previously said that he should not “take small steps” and “take big steps”. (2) the State Council issued a document in January to support Guizhou’s development and give play to the superiority of Maotai Baijiu liquor in Chishui River Basin. (3) in February, Guizhou Province proposed that in 2022, the Guizhou Baijiu liquor brand fleet, which was led by Moutai, will be built, and the policy support to ensure that the added value of the Baijiu industry increased by more than 20% will also set the tone for the accelerated development of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . We continue to be optimistic about Maotai’s accelerated development and reform.
In the short term: Maotai liquor series is driven by two wheels, and a series of measures taken by new leaders will be implemented. 22q1 performance: considering that 22q1 company launched new non-standard products + raised prices in year 15 + low base, the profit side is expected to increase by 19% – 20%; Performance in 22 years: 1) from the perspective of volume, considering that the amount of Maotai liquor put in this year is only about 36000 tons, which is expected to be 50000 tons at the end of the 14th five year plan, the four years back in 2022 are the big year of Maotai base liquor production, and the volume of Maotai liquor is expected to increase or exceed the expectation in 2022; 2) From the perspective of price, the further increase of the proportion of non scalar price double rise superimposed direct sales channels will be the main direction (in line with the strategy of strengthening price control). After the new leader takes office, it is expected to launch more marketing reform measures, which may also be conducive to thickening performance.
In the medium and long term: entering the 14th five year plan, take the road of Maotai and the “five line” development road. Considering the strong demand side performance, the company’s increasing supervision, the steady increase in output (the production target of Maotai base liquor in 2021 is 55300 tons, and the production target of series liquor is 29000 tons; during the 14th Five Year Plan period, Maotai series liquor is planned to achieve double 56000 tons of production capacity), the steady progress of technological transformation projects and the accelerated implementation of channel reform, it is expected that the volume and price of Maotai liquor in 2022 may exceed the expectation, which will accelerate the report side and enter the 14th five year plan, The company will take the road of Maotai, the “five line” development path, adhere to the “double building” and “double consolidation”, focus on the main business, adjust the structure, strengthen supporting facilities, construct the ecology, and have strong certainty of future performance.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the revenue growth rate of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 11.7%, 17.3% and 14.5% respectively; The growth rate of net profit was 12.3% and 18.4% respectively; EPS is 41.8 yuan / share, 49.5 yuan / share and 57.3 yuan / share respectively; The corresponding PE is 40, 34 and 29 times respectively. Considering the strong growth and performance certainty of the company, the buy rating is given.
Risk tips: 1. Macroeconomic downturn; 2. The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
