\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 976 Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) )
Key investment points
Event: in 2021, the company realized a revenue of 3.28 billion yuan (+ 33%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 330 million yuan (+ 120%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 300 million yuan (+ 119%).
The quantity and price of Longmu Zhuanggu granules increased simultaneously, and the growth rate of Q4 slowed down. By business, in 2021, the industrial revenue was 1.68 billion yuan (+ 44%), and the commercial revenue was 1.75 billion yuan (+ 17%). The gross profit margin of industrial products was 78.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 11.7pp, which mainly benefited from the change of packaging of Longmu Zhuanggu granules and the realization of product price increase. The commercial gross profit margin was 5.6%, an increase of 0.76pp. In the four quarters, the revenue reached 840 million yuan (+ 91%), 950 million yuan (+ 62%), 810 million yuan (+ 41%) and 670 million yuan (- 21%) respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 70 million yuan (+ 272%), 100 million yuan (+ 153%), 90 million yuan (+ 31%) and 70 million yuan (+ 208%) respectively. The growth rate of Q4 revenue side decreased.
Product side: large single products grow rapidly and constantly cultivate new products. 1) the largest single product has maintained rapid growth: the income of long Mu Zhuanggu grain rose by 48% over the same period last year. We expect sales to grow 29% over the same period last year. The average price increased by 15% over the same period last year. Xiaojin capsule, Jianpi Sheng Xue granule (tablet), children Bao Taikang and Estradiol Gel kept increasing, and the sales revenue of the hospital end increased 36.23%. 2) Accelerate the cultivation of new products and increase the advertising cost. It is estimated that more than 360 million yuan will be invested in 2022, and quickly promote the OTC channel sales of biantong capsule and the replacement of new packaging of Jianmin Yanhou tablets. 3) Promote the listing and sales of Badu Shengji powder, and strive to create the second growth curve of the company’s products.
Channel side: product channel reform has brought rapid growth to multiple channels. The OTC side increased its advertising investment and distribution rate, achieving a revenue of 900 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 51.3%. The hospital actively carried out evidence-based medicine research and academic marketing, achieving a revenue of 780 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36.2%. It is expected to continue to increase the construction of marketing team in the future. In 2021, there will be more than 1000 salespeople, strengthen terminal coverage, and accurately control channel inventory through marketing digital construction. In 2022, Longmu Zhuanggu Granule will be promoted to the hospital, and biantong capsule and Jianmin Yanhou tablet will be promoted to the outside of the hospital, so as to realize the further growth of products. In 2022, the OTC revenue target is expected to achieve 25% rapid growth, of which biantong capsule is expected to exceed 100 million yuan of OTC sales.
The associated enterprise Dapeng pharmaceutical has continued to grow rapidly and contributed to the investment income. In 2021, the subsidiary Dapeng pharmaceutical achieved a revenue of 680 million yuan (+ 40%), a net profit of 340 million yuan (+ 18%), and a net profit margin of 51%. It is expected to contribute 110 million yuan of investment income to the company. The price rise of upstream bile and bilirubin in 2021 will increase the pressure on the cost side. Since 2021q3, the production capacity has gradually hit the bottleneck. It is expected to increase the price with natural bezoar in 2022.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.59 yuan, 3.29 yuan and 4.24 yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will maintain a compound growth rate of 26.1% in the next three years, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales growth of Longmu Zhuanggu Granule was lower than expected, and the sales growth of in vitro cultured bezoar was lower than expected.
