\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 166 Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) )
Event: on March 28, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) released the annual report for 2021. Revenue 221.24 billion yuan, yoy + 8.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 82.68 billion yuan, yoy + 24.1%; The defect rate is 1.10% (- 2bp), and the provision coverage rate is 268.7% (+ 5.7 PCT).
Comprehensively upgrade the strategy or meet the historical opportunity. In his speech in the 2021 annual report, chairman LV emphasized the strategic adherence of Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) with “one blueprint to the end”, and put forward two strategic measures of “fully accelerating digital transformation” and “three lines of organizational system reform”; Mr. Tao confirmed the strategic line of “commercial bank + investment bank”, reiterated the strategic positioning of “three business cards”, vigorously promoted “digital transformation” and “do well and do well”. The two leaders work together to push forward the strategic transformation to the depth, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) or usher in the best period of historical opportunity.
Signs of fundamental reversal may be clear. In 2021, the revenue was yoy + 8.9%, yoy + 0.8 PCT, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was yoy + 24.1%, yoy + 0.6pct, reaching a new high since 2012.
The scale expansion tends to be stable, and the net interest margin may reach the bottom Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) in 2021, the average interest bearing assets yoy + 6.5%, which is basically the same as 21h1 and has stabilized; The net interest margin was 2.29%, with a year-on-year decrease of 7bp and 3bp compared with 21h1. Although the cost rate of the liability side decreased by 7bp year-on-year, the return rate of the asset side decreased by 11bp year-on-year, which dragged down the performance of the net interest margin.
“Three business cards” are getting better and better, with frequent highlights. 1) “investment banking”, the growth rate of FPA has increased, the growth rate of off balance sheet non-traditional financing has increased significantly, the investment banking business has driven a significant increase in deposits, and the operating income of subsidiaries is significantly higher than that of the group; 2) In terms of “wealth bank”, the scale related to wealth business has generally increased, private banking business has developed rapidly, and the proportion of income of wealth bank has increased significantly; 3) In terms of “green bank”, the financing balance of green gold reached 1386.7 billion, equivalent to 16.1% of the total assets on the balance sheet, which has occupied a leading position.
The cleanliness of the statement is further improved, and the real estate risk is controllable. At the end of 2021, the overall non-performing rate of on balance sheet exposure of real estate was 1.34%, and the corresponding non-performing amount was 22.15 billion yuan. Among them, the non-performing rate of mortgage is 0.49%, and the non-performing rate of public real estate loans is 1.08%. According to this estimation, the total non-performing rate of non-standard and bond parts is about 6.67%, and the risk is controllable.
Investment suggestion: the business boom has seen an inflection point, and the real estate risk has shown its cards
The chairman and president delivered a speech to open up a new atmosphere of strategy; “Three business cards” are becoming better and better, with frequent highlights; Bravely disclose the exposure and adverse conditions related to the real estate, and the cleanliness of the statement has been “clear to the bottom”; Under the resonance of the promotion of strategic transformation, the reversal trend of fundamentals may be more clear. We expect the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company in 22-24 years to be 25.4%, 17.5% and 18.3%, corresponding to EPS of 5.0 yuan, 5.9 yuan and 6.9 yuan. The closing price on March 28, 2022 corresponds to 0.6 times of 22-year Pb, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the macroeconomic situation is down; Credit risk exposure; The transformation progress is less than expected
