\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 117 Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) )
Main points:
The company announced the results of the first quarter of 2022
The company announced that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter of 2022 was about 120150 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19.71% – 49.64% and a month on month decrease of 14.95% – 31.96%. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits will be 110140 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.07% – 46.43% and a month on month decrease of 10.44% – 29.63%.
The year-on-year growth rate of inverter business is expected to exceed 150%, and the year-on-year decline of heat exchanger business is expected
From the year-on-year data, it is predicted that the company’s inverter business will grow by more than 150% year-on-year. According to the export data of inverters, from January to February 2022, the cumulative export amount of inverters increased by 19.4% year-on-year, of which the export amount of Zhejiang Province increased by 95.9% year-on-year. The export growth rate of the company is expected to be higher than the average growth rate of Zhejiang Province, and the inverter business is still bright. It is expected that the inverter business will accelerate growth month on month in the second quarter. From January to February, the output of household air conditioners in China decreased by 1.3% year-on-year; The sales volume increased by 0.8% year-on-year, of which the domestic sales volume decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, and the export sales volume increased by 4.7% year-on-year. Affected by weak sales in the off-season and inventory clearing by customers, the company’s heat exchanger business is expected to decline sharply year-on-year. The second quarter began to enter the air conditioning stock period, and the home appliance business is expected to improve month on month.
The inverter of the company has completed the domestic replacement of IGBT, and the new products of energy storage machine have further opened the market
At present, the company gradually adopts domestic IGBT. Under the background of lack of core, the delivery capacity of the company is enhanced and the cost is reduced. In addition, the company launched new products of energy storage machine this year, aiming at the European and American markets. New products have high cost performance, strong competitiveness and higher gross profit margin. Using new products, the company is expected to further increase its market share in the European and American markets.
Investment advice
Based on the continuous growth of inverter export and the rapid growth of energy storage industry, it is expected that the market share of the company will continue to increase. We estimate that the operating revenue of the company in the 21st-23rd years will be 4.169/56.82/7.193 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 5.77/8.80/1.170 billion yuan, corresponding to PE 81x / 42x / 31x. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Photovoltaic demand is less than expected, gross profit margin is less than expected, key customer risk, etc
