\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 666 Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) )
Event: on March 28, the company released its 2021 annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 29.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.60%; Among them, the revenue from the main coal mining and beneficiation business was 28.559 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.61%. The total profit was 4.282 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 93.57%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.922 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110.61%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 2.919 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100.14%; The basic earnings per share was 1.26 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.66 yuan / share. Cash dividend of 0.76 yuan / share (tax included) in 2021 was distributed to shareholders, corresponding to the dividend rate of 5.10% of the closing price on March 28.
Comments:
Product prices rose, and the company benefited deeply according to its leading position. In 21 years, the company’s raw coal output was 28.85 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.97 million tons (- 6.39%); The sales volume of commercial coal was 306507 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 865100 tons (- 2.74%). The company continued to increase the intensity of raw coal washing. The output of clean coal was 11.88 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 370000 tons (3.21%), and the sales volume of clean coal accounted for 39.12%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.00 PCT. Affected by the rise of employee salary and the price rise of materials, water and electricity, equipment and other factors, the pressure of cost control of the company increased, and the sales cost of commercial coal increased by 180.80 yuan / ton (38.12%) to 655.0 yuan / ton year-on-year. Meanwhile, due to the continuous rise of coking coal prices, the average selling price of commercial coal of the company increased by 246.92 yuan / ton (36.90%) to 916 yuan / ton year-on-year. Based on the above, the company’s gross profit per ton of coal increased by 66.12 yuan / ton (33.93%) to 261.01 yuan / ton. In 2022, the company’s clean coal strategy will be steady. In 2021, the company plans to produce 32.03 million tons of raw coal and 11.6 million tons of clean coal. The actual output of raw coal is 28.85 million tons and the output of clean coal is 11.878 million tons.
The tight supply and demand pattern of coking coal continues, and the advantages of coal type and coal quality attribute of the company are fully displayed. Under the background that the import of high-quality main coking coal in Australia is still limited, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine reshapes the pattern of international coal supply and demand, and the international coking coal price has repeatedly reached new highs. China’s coking coal supply in various production areas is insufficient. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal imports is not smooth, and the coking coal price continues to run at a high level. With the gradual recovery of downstream steel demand, there is still room for future prices to rise. The company is the largest producer and supplier of high-quality and low sulfur main coking coal in China, with regional advantages. Under the current tight supply and demand pattern of coking coal, the scarcity of coal quality of the company is more prominent.
2021 has strong cash profit, and high score red casts a solid wall of the revenue boundary. In 2021, the company realized the dividend commitment in the shareholder dividend return plan, with a dividend of 0.76 yuan per share. The cash dividend accounted for 60.21% of the net profit available for distribution attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in that year, corresponding to the closing price on March 28, and the dividend rate exceeded 5%. With the stabilization of the company’s capital expenditure, the company’s high performance and high profit in the future will be further reflected in the decline of high cash dividends and debt ratio, so as to create a higher safe profit boundary for minority shareholders.
The stripping of auxiliary business highlights the position of main business, and the extension of downstream industrial chain accelerates. While deepening the “efficiency improvement and staff reduction” strategy of intelligent new infrastructure, the company will further peel off the production assistance and life assistance business, promote the market-oriented system reform of the company, improve the production and operation efficiency, and prepare for the longer-term strategic development, transformation and upgrading of the company. At the same time, according to the strategic planning of the controlling shareholder of the company, China Pingmei Shenma Group, the company’s coal coke and coal chemical industry related assets are expected to be injected, and the extension process of the industrial chain is expected to be accelerated.
Profit forecast and rating: we are optimistic about the fundamentals of the coking coal industry and the benefits brought by the company’s “intelligent” new infrastructure “efficiency reduction” and the optimization of the product structure of the clean coal strategy. We raised the forecast of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to 6.331 billion, 8.498 billion and 10.07 billion, with EPS of 2.70/3.62/4.29 yuan / share respectively; The current share price is 14.92 yuan, corresponding to 6 / 4 / 3 times of PE respectively; We are optimistic about the company’s income space and certainty, and maintain the company’s “buy” rating.
Catalytic factors of stock price: the supply of coking coal continues to be limited and the demand gradually recovers; The company’s strategic reform is progressing smoothly and its profitability is further improved.
Risk factors: China’s macroeconomic growth is seriously stalled; Safety production risk; Risk of fluctuations in production.
