\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 68 Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) )
Key investment points
In 2021, the company’s net profit deducted from non parent company increased by 53% year-on-year
1) for the whole year of 2021: the company achieved a revenue of 32.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of – 2.3%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 650 million, a year-on-year increase of – 16%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 570 million, a year-on-year decrease of + 53%. Fourth quarter of 2021: the company achieved a revenue of 9.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of – 11%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 50 million, a year-on-year increase of – 74%.
2) the main reason for the decline of operating income in 2021 is that the consolidated statements of the same period of last year include the operating income of Guizhou Xin’an and Xifei aluminum, which is not included in this reporting period. If the revenues of the two companies are deducted, the actual comparable revenue in 2020 will be about 30.5 billion, an actual increase of about 7%.
3) the main reasons for the decline of net profit attributable to parent company in 2021 are: some receivables in the reporting period were not recovered, and the provision for credit impairment loss was 159 million yuan, an increase of 86 million yuan over the same period of last year; The uncollected amount resulted in an increase in short-term borrowings and interest expenses of 151 million yuan, an increase of 77 million yuan over the same period of last year.
4) profitability: the company’s net interest rate in 2021 was 2%, which was 0.3 percentage points lower than 2.3% in the same period last year. The decline in net interest rate is mainly related to higher credit impairment, interest expenses and R & D expenses.
The company raised the deposit limit of related party transactions in 2022 to 75 billion yuan, or the company raised the deposit limit of related party transactions from 14 billion yuan to 75 billion yuan. Previously, Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) and other aircraft engines raised the deposit limit of related party transactions in 2021, and large contract liabilities appeared in the subsequent financial reports. Based on this, it is estimated that the company is also expected to reap large contract liabilities and large quantities of important products. From the absolute value and growth rate of the deposit limit, we judge that the future order scale of the company is expected to exceed expectations: the increase rate this time is up to 61 billion yuan. We calculate that assuming that the advance collection accounts for 50% of the contract orders, the upper limit of the contract that the company may increase in the future may be nearly 120 billion yuan.
The company is the only platform for military large and medium-sized aircraft, with high production and marketing scale and strong growth certainty in the future. Transport aircraft: Transport 20 is still in the initial stage, and can be modified to produce a series of special aircraft. Compared with the American transport aircraft pedigree, China still lacks 400 ton heavy transport aircraft, and there is broad space for medium and long-term development; Bombers: H-6 is the only bomber at present, and the estimated volume and price of the next generation of war bombers are both high; Special aircraft: the demand for special aircraft is strong under the trend of information war / systematic operation; Civil aircraft: in the next 20 years, the market scale of civil aircraft body parts is about 2.4 trillion, with an average annual growth rate of 120 billion and a compound growth rate of 7%. The company’s manufacturing volume accounts for more than 50% of the two main models of ARJ21 / C919.
Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) : the compound growth rate of performance in the next three years is expected to exceed 45%. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.02/1.52/2.02 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 56% / 49% / 33%, EPS of 0.37/0.55/0.73 yuan, PE of 78 / 52 / 39 times and PS of 2.1/1.6/1.4 times. The company’s PS valuation is low in the whole machine factory. Considering the company’s high strategic scarcity and performance flexibility in the next few years, continue to recommend.
Risk warning: the delivery progress of the company’s products is less than expected; The progress of relevant reform measures was less than expected.
