\u3000\u3 Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) 071 Henan Liliang Diamond Co.Ltd(301071) )
2022q1 net profit forecast increased by 127.89% - 152.40% year-on-year, and continued to maintain the "buy" rating
The company's 2022q1 net profit forecast range was 93-103 million yuan, with an increase of 127.89% - 152.40%, and the deduction of non parent net profit forecast range was 90-100 million yuan, with an increase of 128.71% - 154.12%, mainly due to: (1) the proportion of cultivated diamond sales with high gross profit increased significantly, while cultivating diamond extrusion industry diamond production capacity, and the shortage of single crystal promoted the price year-on-year increase; (2) The company's raised investment projects have been put into operation one after another, and the scale of production capacity has expanded rapidly. With the rising price of natural diamonds, strong overseas demand and the gradual layout of Chinese traditional and emerging brands, the industry is still in a high boom stage, and the company is enjoying the industry β At the same time, it has the advantages of rapid production expansion and process improvement α Property, we maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 4.4/6.6/950 million, corresponding to EPS of RMB 7.3/10.9/15.7, and the current stock price will be 36.2/24.4/16.9 times that of PE from 2022 to 2024, maintaining the "buy" rating.
We will increase investment by raising funds, increase investment in R & D and speed up capacity expansion, and the market share is expected to be further improved
The announcement plans to issue no more than 120744 million shares to no more than 35 specific objects, with a total fund-raising of no more than 4 billion yuan, It is planned to invest in "Shangqiu Henan Liliang Diamond Co.Ltd(301071) science and technology center and diamond intelligent factory construction project" (integration of production and research, raising 2.06 billion yuan for capacity construction, including 1.637 billion yuan for equipment investment and 130 million yuan for R & D center) and "power phase II diamond and diamond intelligent chemical plant construction project" (1.374 billion yuan for equipment investment). It is expected that the number of presses will increase by about 1800. This investment will focus on the R & D and capacity expansion of the main industry, Production capacity and efficiency are expected to be improved to consolidate the company's competitive advantage. It is estimated that the company has about 700 presses, and the capacity utilization rate has reached more than 95%. In terms of outsourcing, some new suppliers have been developed, and the benefits of independent assembly of presses are excellent. In the future, the company will rapidly expand production through outsourcing + procurement of key components, independent assembly + Construction of equipment processing line. The long-term capacity is expected to reach about 25 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) sets, and the market share is expected to be further improved.
The cultivation diamond industry is still in a high boom stage, and the supply of industrial diamonds is in short supply, which is expected to increase the annual performance
(1) at present, the penetration rate of cultivated diamonds is only about 6%. With strong overseas demand for cultivated diamonds and the gradual layout of Chinese traditional and emerging brands, the penetration rate is expected to increase in the future. At the same time, cultivated diamonds anchor the pricing of natural diamonds. According to IDEX data, the price index of finished diamonds increased by 10.9% from January 1 to March 27, 2022, including 5.7% and 4.3% in January and February respectively. It is expected that the price of cultivated diamonds will still rise in 2022. (2) Under the background of high prosperity in the diamond industry, industrial diamond 2022q1 still maintains the trend of short supply, and is expected to continue to gain the annual performance.
Risk tip: capacity expansion is less than expected; The demand for diamond cultivation is less than expected; Market competition intensifies.
