\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 600)
Event: the company issued the 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 30.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.7%, a beer sales volume of 7.93 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of + 1.4%, and a corresponding price of 3804.1 yuan per ton of wine, a year-on-year increase of + 7.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.3%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 2.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; In the single quarter of 2021q4, the company achieved a revenue of 3.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1.7%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of – 460 million yuan (compared with – 780 million yuan in the same period of last year), and a net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company of – 1.01 billion yuan (compared with – 860 million yuan in the same period of last year).
Product structure optimization and price increase went hand in hand, and the apparent ton price and gross profit margin increased significantly. In 2021, the company’s price per ton of wine / cost per ton was + 7.2% / 4.9% year-on-year respectively. If excluding the impact of changes in accounting standards (transportation expenses transferred from sales expenses to operating costs), the cost per ton was + 3.8% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin / gross profit margin were + 1.4/1.9pct to 36.7% / 42.3% year-on-year respectively. We expect that the significant rise in price per ton and gross profit margin is mainly due to: 1) the large-scale growth of main brands and the continuous promotion of high-end. In the whole year, the sales volume of Tsingtao Beer’s main brands reached 4.329 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of + 11.6%, significantly faster than that of other brands (a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%), and the sales volume of main brands accounted for + 5.0pct to 54.6% year-on-year. At the same time, it is expected that white beer, Pearson and other high-end products will perform well, and the high-end products will increase by 14.2% year-on-year; 2) Price increase and product line sorting further contribute to the upward trend of ton price. In 2021, the selling price per ton of beer of other brands of the company increased by + 7.2% year-on-year, which is expected to be related to the active price increase and product sorting. In the single quarter of 2021q4, the company’s revenue / sales volume / ton price were + 1.7% / – 3.4% / + 5.3% year-on-year respectively. It is expected that it is mainly due to the impact of the epidemic superimposed in the off-season, but the sales volume of main brands still achieved a positive growth of 2.5% year-on-year. In terms of subregions, Shandong and North China performed well, with revenue growth rates of 9.5% / 12.1% respectively.
Cash flow is bright, changes in fair value and land acquisition and storage performance. In 2021, the company’s net cash flow from sales / operation was 35.86 billion yuan and 6.04 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.2% / 22.0% respectively. From the perspective of expense ratio, the company’s sales / management / financial expense ratio increased from + 0.7 / – 0.4 / + 0.9pct to 13.6% / 5.6% / – 0.8% year-on-year respectively. The increase in sales expense ratio is mainly due to 1) overweight product promotion; 2) In 2021, there will be social security reduction and exemption, and the annual net interest rate attributable to / deducted from non attributable to the parent will be + 2.5% / 0.8% to 10.5% / 7.3% year-on-year. In 2021, the non recurring profit and loss totaled 950 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 146%, of which 480 million non current assets disposal income was mainly land collection and storage income, and the income from fair value change was about 200 million yuan, mainly due to the company’s financial income such as structural deposits. This part of the change reduced the company’s financial expenses from – 470 million in 2021 to – 240 million. The company announced that the invested structural deposits were principal guaranteed floating income type. If the change in fair value of 200 million was added back, Corresponding to the deduction of non net profit of about 2.4 billion yuan in the current year, a year-on-year increase of + 32.4%, the overall operation of the company is stable and good.
The short-term epidemic disturbance, the annual volume and price rise can be expected. In March, the epidemic situation throughout the country repeatedly affected beer consumption, but considering that it is still in the off-season, the impact on the whole year is expected to be controllable. Looking forward to 2022, from the perspective of price, the cost pressure in 2021 will give birth to the price rise tide of the industry. As the leader of the industry, Tsingtao beer is expected to benefit deeply, and the superposition of high-end products will continue to promote. 2022 company is expected to continue the trend of high ton price increase in 2021; In terms of sales volume, the sales volume of 2021q2 / Q3 Tsingtao beer was – 7.1% / – 8.7% year-on-year. The dynamic sales in peak season under the low base can be expected. At the same time, from the longer-term perspective, the impact of the epidemic showed a marginal weakening trend as a whole, which is optimistic about the development of the company in 2022.
Profit forecast: slightly adjust the previous profit forecast and introduce it into 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202224 will be 4.16/4.45/5.15 billion yuan respectively (originally 4.33/4.48 billion yuan), add back the one-time impairment of plant closure and equity incentive and other expenses, and exclude the impact of land collection compensation of 440 / 700 million yuan in 2021 / 2022. The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company will be 37.8/46.7/5.26 billion yuan, and the adjusted corresponding PE will be 28 / 23 / 20 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation repeatedly affects the mobile sales; The cost rise is higher than expected; The high-end process is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies.
