\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 426 Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) )
The company released the performance forecast for the first quarter. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company from 2.25 billion yuan to 2.45 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 43% to 55%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses ranged from 2.24 billion yuan to 2.44 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 43% to 55%.
The prices of main products rose year-on-year, and the performance increased rapidly in the first quarter. According to the company’s announcement, the company’s performance increased rapidly in the first quarter, mainly due to (1) the year-on-year increase in the price of the company’s leading products; (2) A series of technical transformation projects for increasing production and improving quality of dimethyl carbonate, caprolactam and supporting devices have been completed and put into operation, providing an increment for the company’s operation; (3) The company overcame the impact of the epidemic and other external environment, adjusted and optimized the product structure, and ensured the stable operation of the production system and maximized the benefits. Combined with the company’s operating data from January to February, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in March is expected to be between 650850 million yuan, accounting for about 40.63% – 53.13% of the net profit attributable to the parent company from January to February.
The prices of most products were still better than the same period last year, and some fell month on month. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of March 28, the average price of urea Q1 increased by 31.71% year-on-year and 9.11% month on month; The average price of dmfq1 increased by 77.65% year-on-year and decreased by 5.57% month on month; The average price of adipic acid Q1 increased by 44.9% year-on-year and 5.6% month on month; The average price of acetic acid Q1 decreased by 1.69% year-on-year and 27.13% month on month; The average price of octanol Q1 decreased by 2.31% year-on-year. Up 3.88% month on month.
Fully promote the project construction, and the production capacity is expected to be gradually released. The company’s existing capacity under construction includes 1 million tons of urea, 1 million tons of acetic acid, 50000 tons of DMF, 150000 tons of methylamine, 200000 tons of nylon 6 products, 80000 tons of nylon 66 products, 120000 tons of PBAT, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of dimethyl carbonate, 300000 tons of methyl ethyl carbonate and 50000 tons of diethyl carbonate. At present, the company’s amide and nylon new material project is pushed forward as scheduled according to the construction plan; The elements and conditions of the second base project have been implemented successively, and the project construction has been gradually started. With the steady progress of the company’s projects under construction, the company’s performance is expected to be released gradually.
Investment suggestion: Recently, affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international oil price has remained high. Under the background of ensuring supply and stable price in China, the trend of coal price is relatively stable, and coal chemical enterprises have cost performance ratio. At the same time, the steady progress of several projects under construction of the company is conducive to the continuous expansion of the company’s scale and the guarantee of future performance growth. The company is a leading coal chemical enterprise with cost and environmental protection technology advantages and capacity expansion potential. It is expected to benefit from the supply side reform of the chemical industry under the “double carbon” goal. It is estimated that the basic earnings per share of the company from 2021 to 2022 will be 3.43 yuan and 3.47 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 9.42 times and 9.32 times respectively, maintaining the recommended rating.
Risk warning: there is a risk that the sharp fluctuation of crude oil and coal prices will lead to the decline of product price and price difference; The risk of intensified industry competition; Macroeconomic pressure leads to the risk that the downstream demand is lower than expected; Risk that the capacity release of projects under construction is less than expected; Natural and man-made disasters and other force majeure events.
