\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 803 Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) )
In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 115.92 billion (year-on-year + 31.6%) and net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.1 billion (year-on-year + 94.7%), and the performance was in line with expectations. After deducting one-time factors such as exchange gains and losses, the company’s core net profit was 3.57 billion (year-on-year + 60.8%), the gross profit of natural gas related business accounted for 94%, and the profit structure was continuously optimized.
Due to the increase of gas source cost and the pressure on gas sales business, fanneng took over and driven the steady growth of urban fuel business. Although affected by the increase of gas source cost, the price difference of the company narrowed by 15% year-on-year to 0.51 yuan / m3, the gas sales + pan energy driven urban fuel business grew steadily: 1) in 21 years, the company’s retail gas volume increased by 15.1% year-on-year to 25.27 billion m3; 2) The revenue of Pan energy business reached 7.81 billion yuan (year-on-year + 54.8%), the gross profit reached 1.37 billion yuan (year-on-year + 51.2%), and 150 pan energy projects have been put into operation. At the same time, the company’s core net profit increased by 12% – 15% in 22 years, of which the retail gas volume increased by 12% – 15%, the revenue of full caliber universal energy business + 50%, the gross profit of value-added business increased by more than 30%, and the connection volume of residents, industry and Commerce reached 2.4 million households and 20 million m3 / day. The high gas source price or continued to suppress the price difference. The price difference in 22 years was flat to 0.5 yuan / m3 year-on-year.
LNG trade volume, 21 year profit exceeded expectations. In the 21st year, the company’s direct sales revenue of natural gas was 5.78 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 22.3% (year-on-year + 13.0 PCT), and the profit of gas source trade increased significantly. The main reasons are as follows: 1) the direct sales volume increased by + 336% to 4.1 billion m3 year-on-year, 2) due to the company’s strengthened acquisition of medium and short-term LNG resources and flexible use of hedging means, the unilateral gross profit of gas source trade was 0.31 yuan / m3 (year-on-year + 93%). In July 22, the company signed a long contract of 900000 tons with chenier to start delivery, which helped the company better control the gas source trade cost and bring considerable profit increment.
High coal prices have driven significant improvements in the profitability of coal-based clean energy. Driven by the sharp rise in coal prices, in 2021, the company’s energy production (coal + coal to methanol) revenue was 5.01 billion yuan (year-on-year + 41.5%), gross profit was 1.46 billion yuan (year-on-year + 54.3%), and the profit of coal-based clean energy was significantly improved. The company’s coal mine business was affected by the gangue layer in the 21st year, and the shipment volume was – 38% to 3.9 million tons year-on-year. The output in the 22nd year is expected to increase to 5.3-5.5 million tons, driving the overall sector profit to continue to improve.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Due to the rising profit of gas source trading business, we raised the performance forecast to 1.50/1.70/1.97 yuan for the company in 22-24 years (1.41/1.56 yuan for the company in 22-23 years before adjustment). Based on the 22-year PE valuation of the comparable company of 13X, because the performance growth rate of the company in 23 years was higher than that of the comparable company, we gave the company a 15% premium, corresponding to the 22-year PE 15x, the target price of 22.50 yuan, and a “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The risk that the demand for natural gas and the spot sales price of LNG in China are lower than expected; Macroeconomic downside risks.
