\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 615 Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) )
Investment logic
It is expected that the sea breeze will meet the long-term boom development during the 14th Five Year Plan period. 1) It is estimated that the installed capacity of sea breeze can reach 60GW during the 14th Five Year Plan period; 2) The construction cost of Haifeng fell more than expected. At the end of 2021, China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) announced that it would invest about 41.2 billion yuan to build the Yangjiang Qingzhou five, six and seven projects of the Three Gorges, of which the lowest cost of the single project was 13355 yuan / kW. According to CWEA statistics, the average construction cost of China's sea breeze in 2020 is 17800 yuan / kW. The annual decrease of sea breeze construction cost is 25%; 3) The "14th five year plan" of all provinces exceeded expectations. By the end of March 2022, the published sea breeze planning of each province in the 14th five year plan has reached about 46.64gw; 4) It is expected that the sea breeze will be parity in 2023. We expect that when the power generation hours are 3800 hours, if the average cost is reduced to 12000 yuan / kW, the parity can be realized.
The company is the leader of megawatt sea breeze, and the proportion of sea listing continues to increase. The company is the pioneer of large-scale wind turbines in China, with many advantages, such as fast product renewal, low cost, high power generation, good technical route and so on. In terms of mass production models, the company has formed 5.5MW, 6.45mw, 7.25mw and 8.5mw The product pedigree of offshore wind turbine dominated by xmw, 11mw and other products. The proportion of sales capacity of the company's sea breeze products increased rapidly. In 2019, the proportion of sales capacity of the company's land breeze and sea breeze products was 85% and 15% respectively, and that of 1h21 was 51% and 49%. According to our calculation, the company's share of China's Haifeng market is about 19% in 2019 and about 35% in 2021.
The company has strong location advantages. Headquartered in Guangdong, the company is a key unit in the implementation of offshore wind power industry cluster construction in Guangdong Province. At present, Guangdong is the only province in China to propose specific subsidy policies. The subsidies per kilowatt from 2022 to 2024 are 1500 yuan, 1000 yuan and 500 yuan respectively. In June 2021, Guangdong Province issued the implementation plan for promoting the orderly development of offshore wind power and the sustainable development of related industries, striving to build a total of 18gw of offshore wind power by the end of 2025. It is expected that the company will deeply benefit from the high prosperity and development of Guangdong sea breeze.
According to the performance express, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.319 billion in 2021, an increase of 141.56% at the same time. According to the performance express, the company achieved a revenue of 27.273 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 21.45% and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.319 billion yuan, an increase of 141.56%. The company issued 148 million non-public shares in February 2022, raising a total of about 2 billion yuan. All the raised funds are used to supplement working capital and promote the sustainable development of the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect the company to realize net profits of RMB 3.3 billion, RMB 3.5 billion and RMB 4.4 billion respectively from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 141%, 6% and 27% respectively, corresponding to eps1.2% 70 yuan, 1.79 yuan, 2.27 yuan. The current share price of the company corresponds to 15.4, 14.6 and 11.5 times of PE in the three years respectively. The company will give an overall valuation of 18 times in 2022, with a target price of 32.22 yuan / share. It will be covered for the first time, and will be rated as "overweight".
Risk tips
Policy risk, market competition risk, the risk of lifting the ban on restricted shares and the risk of reducing the holdings of major shareholders.
