\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 95 Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) )
Improve performance and maintain the “overweight” rating
In 2021q4, the total revenue was 15.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.413 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%. In 2021, the company’s performance was under pressure and improved on a month on month basis in 2021q4. We lowered the profit forecast for 20222023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 62.3 (- 4.2), 7.02 (- 5.3) and 7.76 billion yuan respectively, and EPS will be 180 (- 0.12), 2.03 (- 0.15) and 2.24 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 14.9, 13.2 and 11.9 times respectively. The company has a high dividend rate and maintains the “overweight” rating.
Pig prices rebounded, frozen products accelerated delivery, and the profit of slaughtering business increased
Year on year increase in slaughter volume in 2021; The sales volume of raw and fresh meat was 1.6325 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%. The main reasons for the low slaughter volume in 2021q4 are: (1) the need to deal with the inventory of frozen products; (2) It was predicted that the price of pigs would drop after the Spring Festival, so they didn’t hoard too much meat. The sales volume of raw and fresh meat in 2021q4 increased year-on-year, but the low pig price reduced the revenue of 2021q4 slaughtering department by 23.4% year-on-year. The rebound in 2021q4 pig prices accelerated the delivery of frozen products and reversed the previous provision for impairment, which increased the profit of the slaughtering department by 13% year-on-year. Looking forward to 2022, it is expected that the average price of pigs in the whole year will be lower than that in 2021, showing a trend of low before and high after, and the profits of domestic and imported frozen products can be improved; With the gradual recovery of pure slaughtering business, the average head profit can return to the normal level, and the quantity profit of slaughtering business can rise together.
The ton price and ton profit of meat products can be increased, and the business flexibility is large
In 2021, the total sales volume of fresh and frozen pork, chicken and packaged meat products of the company was 3.3 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3%. The main reasons for the decline in the sales volume of meat products in 2021 are as follows: (1) the decline in the price of pigs and the decline in the cost of raw materials led to the impact of low price strategy on the market by small enterprises and the decline in the sales volume of ordinary products of the company; (2) The structural adjustment of new products is less than expected, and the volume is still small, which can not make up for the decline of ordinary products. The business income of meat products in 2021q4 was 6.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%; The operating profit was about 1.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25%. The increase in ton profit was mainly due to the decline in the cost of raw materials. Looking forward to 2022, the sales volume of meat products is expected to grow steadily: (1) promote information management and add more outlets in 2021; (2) Marketing innovation will be carried out in 2021, and the effect is obvious; (3) Increase market investment during the downward period of pig price, and the market foundation is solid; (4) New products perform well, which can promote sales growth. During the decline of raw material costs, the ton price of meat products business is expected to rise steadily, the ton profit is still at a high level, and the meat products business is more flexible.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, market expansion less than expected, raw material price fluctuation risk, etc.
