\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 890 Asian Star Anchor Chain Co.Ltd.Jiangsu(601890) )
Asian Star Anchor Chain Co.Ltd.Jiangsu(601890) : the leader of global chain industry and the pioneer of domestic substitution. Founded in 1981, the company has developed for more than 40 years and has broken foreign monopoly. At present, it has become a leader in the global chain industry. At present, the company’s main products are marine anchor chain and marine mooring chain. In the field of marine anchor chain, the company’s products have passed the certification of many international classification societies, which is the safety guarantee of ship navigation; In the field of mooring chain, the company’s products have completed six update iterations, and successfully independently developed the highest level R6 mooring chain in the world, with superior product performance. Thanks to the recovery of the global marine engineering market, the company’s performance continued to pick up. From 2021q1-q3, the company achieved a revenue of 1.011 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.24%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 98 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 44.33%.
The marine anchor chain continues to recover, and the leading companies benefit deeply: stimulated by the epidemic, the downstream transport capacity continues to tighten and other factors, the shipbuilding industry is ushering in recovery. According to Clarkson’s statistics, the global total new orders reached 120 million dwt in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 77.1%, reaching the highest level since 2014. Marine anchor chain business is affected by the shipbuilding industry and shipping industry, and its development cycle is closely related to the rise and fall of the industry. With the gradual warming of shipbuilding industry, the demand for marine anchor chain is gradually released. Historically, the demand for marine anchor chain is directly related to the completion of shipbuilding, which lags behind the new orders of ships by about 1-2 years. We estimate that the global market space of marine anchor chain and its accessories will exceed 13 billion from 2021 to 2025. The company is the leader of the marine anchor chain industry and is expected to deeply benefit from the recovery of the industry.
From the traditional field to the emerging field, the mining industry has attacked the domestic substitution, and the offshore floating wind power has a broad prospect: after years of development, the company has become a global leader in the traditional chain fields such as marine and marine engineering. With the acceleration of the transformation of the global energy system to green and low-carbon, the company is attacking from traditional fields to emerging fields. Mooring system is an important part in the production process of offshore floating wind power platform. According to GWEC, by 2030, the new installed capacity of offshore floating wind power will reach 6254mw, and the average annual compound growth rate from 2020 to 2030 will reach 80.5%. Based on this calculation, it is estimated that the market space of offshore floating wind power chain will reach US $15 billion from 2021 to 2030. In addition, in the field of mining chain, the company has obtained coal safety certification. Previously, China was mainly dominated by German and Japanese enterprises. With the advantages of manufacturing and performance, it is expected to gradually realize domestic substitution.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: after years of development, the company has become a leading enterprise in the global anchor chain industry, attacking from the field of traditional marine anchor chain and mooring chain to emerging fields such as offshore floating wind power and mining chain. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 140 million yuan, 190 million yuan and 310 million yuan, corresponding to pe51, 38 and 23 times. It is rated as “overweight” for the first time.
Risk tip: the recovery of the shipbuilding industry is less than expected, the development of offshore floating wind power is less than expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the exchange rate risk
