\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 666 Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) )
Event: the company issued the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 29.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110.6%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.92 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100.1%. The basic earnings per share is 1.26 yuan / share.
In Q4 of 21, the net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter increased by 62.4% month on month, a record high. In 2021, Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 10.13 billion yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 82.2% year-on-year and 46.3% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.15 billion yuan, an increase of 236.4% year-on-year and 62.4% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 170.3% and a month on month increase of 65.5%, mainly due to the sharp rise in the price of coking coal long-term association of Q4 company in 21 years, and the production and sales gradually returned to normal.
The quantity and price of Q4 rose in 21 years, and the clean coal output in 22 years is expected to reach a record high. In terms of production and marketing, the company achieved 28.85 million tons of raw coal in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%; The sales volume of self owned commercial coal was 26.59 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%; By quarter, the production and sales of Q1 ~ Q4 were 7.83 million tons / 7.28 million tons, 7.03 million tons / 6.5 million tons, 6.85 million tons / 6.16 million tons and 7.14 million tons / 6.65 million tons respectively. The coal production and sales volume has gradually recovered in the fourth quarter. In terms of selling price, the comprehensive selling price of commercial coal of the company was 916 yuan / ton in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 36.9%; In terms of quarters, the selling prices of Q1 ~ Q4 were 733 yuan / ton, 792 yuan / ton, 912 yuan / ton and 1235 yuan / ton respectively. The coal selling price of the company reached a new high in the fourth quarter. The selling price in the fourth quarter increased by 35.3% month on month and 141% year-on-year. In terms of cost, the company’s sales cost of commercial coal was 655 yuan / ton in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 38.1%, of which Q1 ~ Q4 costs were 585 yuan / ton, 657 yuan / ton, 745 yuan / ton and 962 yuan / ton respectively. In addition, according to the company’s annual report, the planned output of clean coal in 2022 is 12.35 million tons, which is expected to be the best level in history.
Coking coal prices are expected to rise strongly, and the company’s performance is expected to reach a new high. The company is the largest producer and supplier of low sulfur and high-quality main coking coal in China. The coal type is mainly high-quality main coking coal with strong bargaining power. According to the company’s interactive platform, the company’s long-term association price of Q1 main coking coal in 2022 is basically the same as Q4 in 2021. According to wind data, as of March 28, the sector price of Henan Pingdingshan main coke car was 2960 yuan / ton, which was consistent with Q4 in 2021. In the future, coking coal has the attribute of scarce resources, and China’s supply increment is limited; The Australian coal problem has not been solved, the foreign prices of the maritime coking coal market have been significantly inverted, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal imports is low due to the impact of the epidemic, the supply role of coking coal imports is limited, and the overall supply of coking coal is tight. The steel plant is still in the production resumption cycle and the low inventory of coke steel on both sides. After the epidemic is controlled, the steel plant has a centralized and explosive demand for replenishment. The superimposed hot metal output moves upward, and there is still room for improvement in downstream demand. The coking coal price may rise strongly at that time, which is expected to promote the company’s performance to a new high.
Enter the coking project and broaden the industrial territory. The company plans to invest 700 million yuan to establish a joint venture with Rufeng coking (70% of the company’s shares), build a coking project with an annual output of 1.2 million tons, and support the construction of relevant chemical production and deep processing projects, so as to extend the industrial chain and expand the comprehensive strength. According to the calculation of the feasibility study report, after the project is completed and put into operation, the annual operating income and total profit of the project will be 2.696 billion yuan and 245 million yuan, with a total return on investment of 13.7% and a total investment payback period (before tax) of 7.1 years.
Stripping of auxiliary industries, light loading, cost reduction and efficiency enhancement continued to be promoted. According to the principle of “lean and efficient main business and independent development of auxiliary business”, the company plans to spin off the production auxiliary and life service institutions (including personnel and business) and related assets not directly related to the main coal business to China Pingmei Shenma Group, which will optimize, restructure and develop the auxiliary business independently. The main target is to set up auxiliary business institutions such as production and maintenance services and logistics services in various grass-roots units. At the same time, the company vigorously implements the strategy of “cost reduction and efficiency increase”. The company deploys the ten-year plan for human resources reform, actively and steadily promotes the “great job transfer of 10000 mining workers”, and strives to optimize the number of coal mine workers to less than 40000 in 5-8 years, so as to greatly improve the per capita work efficiency; By the end of 2021, the company had 65300 employees, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1% compared with 74300 at the end of 20, with remarkable results.
The dividend ratio is 60.2%, and the dividend ratio is as high as 5.1%. The company plans to pay dividends in 2021 based on the company’s total share capital of 2.32 billion shares, with a cash dividend of 0.76 yuan per share, a total of 1.76 billion yuan, with a dividend ratio of 60.2%. Based on the closing price on March 28, the dividend rate is as high as 5.1%.
Investment advice. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 7.16 billion yuan, 7.95 billion yuan and 8.42 billion yuan, corresponding to PE of 4.8, 4.3 and 4.1 respectively. As the leader of coking coal in central and southern China, the company has stable downstream users and good geographical location conditions. In addition, the effectiveness of the company’s “clean coal strategy” and “cost reduction and quality improvement” has gradually emerged, laying a solid foundation for high-quality development. The company has a high and stable dividend plan and maintains the “holdings increase” rating.
Risk tip: coal prices have fallen sharply; Clean coal production fell.
