\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 600)
Performance review
The company released its annual report on March 28, with a revenue of 30.167 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 8.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 43.3%; Excluding Yang Jiaqun’s collection and storage compensation of 436 million yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent was 2.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.6%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to the parent company was 2.207 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.5%. 21q4 revenue was 3.395 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1.7%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to the parent company was -1.01 billion yuan, and the loss expanded year-on-year.
Business analysis
The performance was in line with the previous announcement, and the structural optimization was promoted throughout the year. In 21 years, the sales volume was 7.93 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of + 1.4% (a decrease of 1.5% compared with 19 years), and the ton price was + 7.03% year-on-year. 1) In terms of products, the revenue of Qingdao brands / other brands in 21 years was 19.796/9.877 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.9% / – 2.1%; The sales volume was 4.329/3.601 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of + 11.6% / – 8.6%, the ton price was + 3% / + 7%, the proportion of Qingdao’s main brands increased 5pct to 54.6%, and the upgrading of product structure continued. The sales volume of high-end and above products (divided by actual profit contribution rather than terminal retail price) was 520000 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of + 14.2%. We expect that the growth rate of white beer will increase by 50%, Laoshan may decline by large single digits, and pure beer will increase by double digits. 2) In terms of subregions, the revenue of Shandong / North China / South China / East China / southeast region was 19.75/72.8/33.7/27.9/890 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.6% / + 12.1% / + 3.0% / – 0.4% / + 8.3%, and the losses in East China and Southeast China narrowed. 3) Quarter by quarter, the sales volume of 21q4 was 848000 kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of – 3.4% (compared with 19 years, a decrease of 0.8%), the ton revenue was + 5.3% year-on-year, and Qingdao / other brands was + 2% / – 12% year-on-year, which was mainly due to the impact of the epidemic on demand and high-end. The prices of 1903 cans and white beer cans were raised at the end of the year, but the volume was small and took time to transmit. In the 21st year, the cost was under phased pressure, and the cost investment recovered. The non net profit margin deducted in 21 years was + 0.8pct year-on-year, of which: 1) the gross profit margin was + 1.4pct year-on-year (the cost per ton was + 4.9%) mainly due to the increase in the cost of barley and packaging materials. 2) The sales rate / management rate is + 0.7 / – 0.4pct year-on-year, which means that the brand publicity is strengthened and the management efficiency is gradually enhanced. 3) The company shut down 2 factories in 21 years, the impairment loss of fixed assets was 189 million yuan, and the capacity utilization rate was 57.6%. After reducing the contract performance cost (RMB 1.683 billion) to the sales expense, the gross profit margin of 21q4 was + 2.6pct year-on-year (the cost per ton was + 1.5% year-on-year), and the cost pressure has improved month on month; Sales rate / management rate + 12.1 / – 7.1pct year on year.
The demand in the off-season is disturbed by the epidemic, and the medium and long-term profitability continues to increase. According to channel feedback, the volume increased by 9% from January to February, and fell by double digits in March. Q1 sales may not change much, and ASP is expected to increase by a large single digit. At present, the epidemic situation in Shandong is under control. It is suggested to pay attention to the progress of epidemic prevention and control in peak season. The price lock of barley is expected to be in the first half of the year, and the impact of packaging materials remains to be seen. However, the price of classic large bottles will be raised at the beginning of the year. The pure birth is expected to be upgraded from April to may, and the profit elasticity can be released. We believe that Tsingtao beer has a good brand image, solid foundation for sponsoring the Winter Olympic Games, and the progress of high-end beer in 22 years may be accelerated month on month. In the medium and long term, the cost-effectiveness ratio and operating efficiency will be improved, waiting for the release of dividends.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the growth rate of revenue in 22-24 years will be 11% / 8% / 6%, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent after excluding land compensation will be 21% / 26% / 22%, EPS will be 2.42/3.05/3.72 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 32 / 26 / 21x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The risk of repeated epidemic, the risk of intensified market competition, the risk of rapid rise of raw materials and food safety problems.
