\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Events
On March 28, the company disclosed the main financial data of 21 years and the main operation in the first quarter of 22 years. In 21 years, the company achieved revenue of 109.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.3%. In the first quarter of the year, the company achieved a revenue of 33.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 16.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.0%, which made a successful start.
Business analysis
The first quarter ended smoothly and the reform dividend continued to be released. The company’s performance in 21 years increased slightly on the basis of the previous forecast, while the performance in the first quarter of 22 years was still bright. On the basis of January to February, the company achieved a revenue of 12.9 billion yuan in March alone, a year-on-year increase of + 14.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.3%, which still achieved good performance after the festival, marking the continuous release of market-oriented reform promoted since the second half of 21 years. From the perspective of product end, Feitian is stable and large-scale. Although the short-term rating has declined due to the dislocation of supply and demand, the supporting force is still strong under the high gap of medium and long-term supply and demand; In the first quarter, the release rhythm of non-standard products was accelerated, and the proportion of direct sales increased. We expect that the new treasure Maotai will contribute about 2.5 billion in incremental revenue; Series liquor companies reduced SKU and played more focused. Under the overall market-oriented reform, the optimization of product structure + channel structure is accelerated, and the profit side is more flexible.
The medium and long-term simultaneous rise of volume and price is highly deterministic. It is suggested to pay attention to the logic of external profit recovery. At present, the company’s e-commerce platform “I Maotai” has been launched, and the core personnel of the platform are controlled by the joint stock company. The first batch of Maotai 1935 and other four products have been launched, and the pricing is consistent with the guidance price. We believe that the company’s attempt at the e-commerce end is expected to be more leisurely, and is expected to achieve new breakthroughs in supply allocation and end consumption characterization. It can be seen that since the market-oriented reform of the company, through the listing of new products and the increase of the price of non-standard / series wines, the product price matrix has become more mature from top to bottom, the proportion of direct sales at the channel end is expected to increase steadily, and the certainty of both volume and price is still very high. At present, although the first tier cities and many other places are disturbed by the epidemic, resulting in some pressure on Feitian and non-standard pricing, the external profit is still considerable. At present, the channel inventory is low, and the subsequent pricing is expected to stabilize and recover with the recovery of sentiment.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect that the growth rate of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years will be 12.3% / 18.2% / 17.9% respectively, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of 52.5/62/73.1 billion yuan; EPS is 41.76/49.35/58.18 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 40 / 34 / 29x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, repeated epidemic risk, channel reform is less than predicted, and food safety problems.
