\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 128 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) )
Event: on March 28, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022.
Performance maintained high growth. As of 22q1, the company’s revenue was 2.12 billion yuan, yoy + 19.0%, 2.7pct higher than the annual growth rate of 21 years; The net profit attributable to the parent company (hereinafter referred to as “profit”) was 660 million yuan, yoy + 23%, an increase of 1.9 PCT over the annual growth rate of 21 years. The growth rate of revenue and profit both maintained a high growth, which is expected to be affected by the strong expansion of the table and the improvement of interest margin. From January to February, the company’s deposits and loans were booming, of which the net increase of loans was 9.5 billion yuan, significantly higher than 7.82 billion yuan in 21q1, and the net increase of deposits was 21.5 billion yuan, equivalent to 90% of the annual growth of 21 years (76% in 21q1) On the one hand, it shows that the expansion has greatly exceeded the 21-year progress. At the same time, the better reserve collection indicates that the debt side cost may be improved, and the net interest margin is expected to stabilize and improve.
Asset quality remains excellent. As of 22q1, the non-performing loan ratio was 0.81%, unchanged from the end of February; The non-performing loan ratio remained stable. It is expected to support the 22q1 provision coverage to stabilize at a high level. As of the end of February, the company’s provision coverage was 520.98%.
The first quarter performance of Jiangsu inner city rural commercial bank may be generally high Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) is representative. The high growth of performance in the first quarter is likely to be the case of other urban rural commercial banks in Jiangsu Province, highlighting the advantages of regional economy. In addition, the 2022 government work report does not mention the incremental target of big banks to benefit small and micro enterprises, indicating that with the normalization of epidemic control, policy support may gradually decline. For urban and rural commercial banks focusing on small and micro businesses, some market demand may be released.
Investment suggestion: high growth continues and the annual performance can be expected
The performance remains high, which is expected to be jointly affected by high expansion and interest margin improvement; From January to February, the schedule expansion progress exceeded expectations, with early investment and early collection. In addition, the bank’s inclusive small and micro policies may decline in the follow-up, and the annual performance is also good. EPS is expected to be 0.8 yuan, 0.95 yuan and 1.14 yuan in 21, 22 and 23 years respectively. The closing price on March 28, 2022 corresponds to 0.9 times of 22 years Pb, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the downward pressure on the economy is increasing; The bad classification policy is becoming stricter; The supervision is stronger than expected.
