\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 808 China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) )
China’s offshore oil service is the absolute leader, and the oilfield technical service business has developed rapidly
China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) is controlled by CNOOC and is one of the largest oilfield service providers in the world. Drilling services and oilfield technical services are the two major sources of revenue of the company, continuously contributing more than 80% of the revenue. Compared with the drilling platform business, the gross profit margin and barriers of oilfield technical services are higher, which belongs to asset light business. In 2021, the revenue of oilfield technology sector accounted for 51.3%, far exceeding that of drilling platform sector, and ranking the first largest business of the company. And the gross profit margin of the sector has increased continuously for six years, reaching 29.3% in 2021. The company will also continue to focus on oil service technical services.
The global crude oil price will continue to fluctuate at a high level, driving the industry boom upward, and the company has entered a new round of upward cycle
The impact of the epidemic is gradually reduced. The global crude oil demand is expected to recover to 100.8 million barrels / day in 2022, exceeding the average level in 2018 / 19. However, the expansion of global crude oil supply is weak: OPEC + adheres to moderate supply, US shale oil producers adhere to prudent capital expenditure plans, and Russia is severely sanctioned. According to comprehensive calculation, assuming that Russia is restricted in crude oil export due to severe sanctions, the global crude oil gap will reach 1.75 million barrels / day and last for a long time. According to the calculation of the oil price of 105 US dollars / barrel after the EIA increase, CNOOC’s oil and gas profit in the year of 21 / 22 is expected to achieve 141.6/295.5 billion yuan, with an explosive growth of 130% / 109% year-on-year. As a holding subsidiary directly under CNOOC, the utilization rate and daily rate of the company’s drilling platform business are expected to increase significantly, the risk of asset impairment is greatly reduced, and it is expected to achieve sustained and rapid growth of performance and enter a new round of upward cycle.
Offshore oil and gas track has obvious advantages and has become an important growth pole of China’s energy
Under the energy security strategy, offshore oil service has long-term development prospects. China’s dependence on foreign crude oil has reached 73%. It will continue to introduce relevant policies to strengthen energy exploration and continue to promote the high-profile of the oil service industry. Among them, offshore oil and gas production has become an important energy growth pole in China. According to the official website of CNOOC, China’s offshore crude oil increment accounted for more than 80% of China’s total crude oil increment in 2020 / 2021. China is rich in offshore oil and gas resources, which is the key field of oil and gas exploration and development. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, CNOOC has successively launched science and technology projects to target the western oilfield, Eastern oilfield and Bohai oilfield in the South China Sea. It is expected that the total output will reach 80 million tons and CAGR will reach 13% in 2025. Under the background of increasing reserves and production, offshore oil service has long-term growth potential.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 34.5 billion yuan, 40.6 billion yuan and 47.2 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 18% / 17.75% / 16.26%; It is predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be RMB 4.43/53.4/5.55 billion respectively, the corresponding EPS is 0.93/1.12/1.16, and the corresponding valuation level is 15.3/12.7/12.2x. In 2022, the high oil price fluctuated, superimposed on the energy policy, promoted the high prosperity of the oil service industry, and the company has a leading industry position. With reference to the company’s historical valuation, the company gave a 20 times valuation in 2022 and a “buy-b” rating.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation has worsened, greatly reducing global oil demand; The negotiations of OPEC + major crude oil producers failed, resulting in a significant increase in production and an imbalance between supply and demand; The United States has vigorously exploited shale oil, and the supply has increased significantly, impacting the crude oil market; Carbon neutralization policy, accelerate the development of new energy and reduce the demand for crude oil.
