\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 600)
Key investment points
Event: the company achieved a revenue of 30.167 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 8.67%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.34%; Reducing the impact of land expropriation compensation + fixed asset impairment caused by plant closure + equity incentive fees, the core net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 3.045 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 2.207 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.54%. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 3.395 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.73%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -455 million yuan, the compensation for land acquisition was -891 million yuan, and the same period in 2020 was -777 million yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was -1.009 billion yuan, which was -862 million yuan in the same period in 2020.
The product structure continues to improve, and Q4 sales are under pressure in the short term. In 2021, the company achieved 7.93 million kiloliters of beer sales, a year-on-year increase of 1.38%; Beer revenue reached 29.673 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.54%; The revenue per ton of wine increased by 7.06% year-on-year to 3743 yuan / kiloliter. The company’s revenue per ton of wine maintained a benign growth, mainly benefiting from the continuous improvement of product structure. In 2021, the sales volume of the company’s main brands reached 4.33 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 11.62%, including 520000 kiloliters of high-end products, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%; The sales volume of other brands was 3.6 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.68%, but the average price of other brands increased by 7.2% year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the price increase of Laoshan and the rapid upgrading of low-end regional brands to Laoshan. 2021q4 achieved 846000 kiloliters of beer sales, a year-on-year decrease of 3.65%, mainly due to the repeated impact of the epidemic on the existing drinking channels, of which the sales volume of main brands was 545000 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 2.48%, and the structure continued to improve, driving the revenue per ton of wine to increase by 5.59% year-on-year. In terms of regions, the income of Shandong, South China, North China and Southeast China has increased, and the net interest rate of Shandong and Southeast China has increased.
The cost rose significantly and the expense rate was well controlled as a whole. In 2021, the company’s cost per ton of wine increased by 4.94% year-on-year to 2368 yuan / kiloliter, mainly due to the rise in the prices of packaging materials, especially cans and cartons. Overall, in 2021, the gross profit margin of beer business increased by 1.28 PCT year-on-year to 36.73%. In 2021, the company’s sales, management, R & D and financial expense rates were + 0.71, – 0.43, + 0.02 and + 0.89 PCT respectively to 13.58%, 5.61%, 0.10% and – 0.81% year-on-year, and the overall control was good. Among them, the gross sales difference in 2021q4 decreased by 9.49 PCT year-on-year, mainly due to the continued sharp rise in Q4 costs and the confirmation of advertising investment for the Winter Olympic Games. In 2021q4, the company’s management, R & D and financial expense rates were – 7.10, + 0.21 and + 1.78 PCT respectively to 16.50%, 0.51% and – 1.45% year-on-year. In 2021, the company continued to optimize the supply chain, closed two small factories in Zaozhuang and merged into one large factory to improve efficiency.
Profit forecast: with the acceleration of the company’s high-end process and the superposition of cost driven price increases, ASP will maintain rapid growth in 2022. In 2022, the cost side is still facing upward pressure, and the company is expected to digest it through the increase of average price and positive cost reduction and efficiency increase. Despite the repeated promotion of high-end beer sales, the company is optimistic about the logical impact of the epidemic on the short-term sales, but the average price of beer remains unchanged. According to the company’s annual report, considering the cost pressure in 2022, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 33.234 billion yuan, 35.564 billion yuan and 37.888 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 3.525 billion yuan, 4.648 billion yuan and 6.090 billion yuan respectively (the original forecast value from 2022 to 2023 is 3.656 billion yuan and 4.707 billion yuan), and the EPS will be 2.58, 3.41 and 4.46 yuan respectively, corresponding to 30 times, 23 times and 17 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning events: repeated global epidemics and slowdown of global economic growth; Food safety risks; Decline in sales due to irresistible factors; The deterioration of market competition has brought unexpected promotional activities
