\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 754 Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) )
Operation: RevPAR at home and abroad increased significantly year-on-year throughout the year, and the performance of Q4 at home and abroad was differentiated under the disturbance of the epidemic
Domestic business performance: throughout the year, the domestic RevPAR recovered to 87.54% before the epidemic, and Q4 dragged down the pace of domestic recovery. In 2021, the overall RevPAR in mainland China was 137.52 yuan / room (+ 15.33%), which recovered to 87.54% in 2019. Among them, the RevPAR of economy and medium and high-end hotels were 89.76 yuan / room (+ 19.14%) and 167.15 yuan / room (+ 7.86%) respectively, which recovered to 78.10% and 82.46% in 2019. Quarterly, the overall RevPAR of 21q4 was 133.91 yuan / room (- 11.20%), which recovered to 86.36% of 19q4. Among them, the RevPAR of economy and medium and high-end hotels were 84.90 yuan / room (- 13.19%) and 161.96 yuan / room (- 14.44%), respectively, recovering to 77.86% and 81.92% in the same period in 2019.
Overseas business performance: the annual overseas RevPAR recovered to 66.96% before the epidemic. With the improvement of vaccination rate and the liberalization of overseas policies, Q4 overseas business is bright. In 2021, the overall RevPAR of overseas hotels was 24.85 euros per room (+ 25.25%), which recovered to 66.96% in 2019. Among them, the RevPAR of economy hotels and medium and high-end hotels were 24.32 euros per room (+ 27.06%) and 26.39 euros per room (+ 21.61%), which recovered to 67.27% and 66.84% in 2019 respectively. Quarterly, the overall RevPAR of 21q4 was 29.55 euros / room (+ 77.80%), recovering to 81.57% of 19q4. Among them, RevPAR of economy and medium and high-end hotels were 28.58 euros per room (+ 77.85%) and 32.31 euros per room (+ 78.61%) respectively, recovering to 82.48% and 80.50% in the same period of 2019 respectively. Considering the easing of overseas epidemic prevention and control policies, overseas hotel business is expected to rebound rapidly.
Store opening: asset light franchise and medium and high-end strategy continue to be promoted, and the store opening structure continues to be optimized
1) opening scale: by the end of 21q4, the company had opened 10613 hotels in total, of which domestic accounted for 88.15% (+ 0.02pct), franchise accounted for 91.32% (+ 1.25pct), and medium and high-end accounted for 51.98% (+ 4.97pct); From the perspective of room size, as of the end of Q4, the total number of hotel rooms opened by the company reached 1019400, of which domestic accounts for 90.12% (+ 0.01pct), franchise accounts for 89.99% (+ 1.47pct), and medium and high-end accounts for 60.34% (+ 4.60pct). The proportion of medium and high-end hotels has increased rapidly, and the opening structure has been continuously optimized.
2) net increase in opening: in 2021, there were 1763 newly opened hotels and 1207 newly opened hotels, an increase of 315 compared with 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 12.83%; There are 1210 / – 3 domestic / overseas stores, – 13 / 1220 direct / franchise stores and 112 / 1095 economical / medium and high-end stores in the net increase hotels. The company’s store opening structure continues to be optimized. 21q4 has a net opening of 418 hotels, which is the highest net increase in opening in a single quarter in recent five years, including 403 / 15 domestic / overseas stores, 5 / 413 direct / franchise stores and 86 / 332 economical / medium and high-end stores By the end of 20q4, the company had signed 15400 hotels, of which 4760 were not opened. Considering the company’s goal of “ten thousand stores in three years”, the company is expected to continue to accelerate the pace of expanding stores in the future.
Financial situation: the profitability of the subsidiary group has been significantly improved, and the management expenses continue to be optimized
Revenue side: 1) hotel business: in 2021, the hotel business realized revenue of 11.09 billion yuan (+ 14.94%), which recovered to 74.70% in 2019, including domestic revenue of 8.8 billion yuan (+ 12.66%) and overseas revenue of 2.290 billion yuan (+ 24.63%), which recovered to 81.87% and 55.89% in 2019 respectively. The proportion of domestic business revenue in hotel business in 2021 was about 79.35%; The net profit attributable to the hotel business segment was – 900000 yuan (- 102.49%), which was mainly due to the investment income obtained from the sale of the equity of subsidiaries in the same period of last year. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent of the company’s domestic hotel business reached 444 million yuan, with a net interest rate of 5.04%, which exceeded the 153 million yuan of Huazhu group, and the corresponding net interest rate attributable to the parent was 1.37%. 2) Food and catering business: the revenue was 249 million yuan (+ 0.03%), recovering to 98.50% in 2019; The net profit attributable to the food and catering business segment was 203 million yuan (- 20.96%), which decreased significantly year-on-year, mainly due to the decrease in the fair value of other non current financial assets compared with the same period of the previous year. 3) Subsidiaries: in 2021, Botao group realized a revenue of 3.228 billion yuan, a net profit attributable to the parent of 337 million yuan, and a net interest rate attributable to the parent of 10.45% (+ 5.06pct), of which Q4 realized a revenue of 829 million yuan, a net profit attributable to the parent of 66 million yuan, and a net interest rate attributable to the parent of 7.99% (+ 1.48pct); Vienna group realized revenue of RMB 3.263 billion, net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 467 million and net interest rate attributable to parent company of 14.32% (+ 3.26pct), of which Q4 realized revenue of RMB 876 million, net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 92 million and net interest rate attributable to parent company of 10.54%; Louvre group achieved a revenue of 302 million euros and a net profit attributable to the parent of – 52 million euros, a loss of 45 million euros compared with the same period in 2020, of which Q4 achieved a revenue of 911 million euros and a net profit attributable to the parent of – 5.32 million euros.
Cost side: 1) sales expense: it was 887 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 31.37%, mainly due to the increase of commission and advertising in this period; The sales expense ratio was 7.82%, an increase of 1.0pct compared with 2020. 2) Administrative expenses: it was 2.321 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.08%. The rate of administrative expenses was 20.47%, a decrease of 2.73 PCT compared with 2020 and 6.53 PCT compared with 2019. The efficiency of the company has improved significantly after the reform. 3) Financial expenses: it was 540 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 50.45%. The substantial increase in financial expenses was due to the completion of non-public offering of A-Shares and the implementation of the new leasing standards in the current period; The financial expense ratio was 4.77%, an increase of 1.14 PCT over 2020. 4) Total operating cost: RMB 11.348 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 4.87%.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company is the leading hotel in China, with significant scale and brand advantages; During the epidemic period, the company accelerated the pace of reform and management efficiency was significantly improved; With the recovery of the hotel industry, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years to be RMB 1005, RMB 2026 and RMB 2571 million respectively, and the corresponding EPS are RMB 0.94, RMB 1.89 and RMB 2.40 per share respectively. Under the trend of increasing the chain rate in China and upgrading and substitution of medium and high-end hotels, the company has both the advantages of the industry β With company α Property, the number of stores and the structure of stores are expected to be further optimized to maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk tips
The recovery of the industry is less than expected, and the speed of expanding stores is less than expected.
