\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 55 Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) )
Events
The company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 7.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.97%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 676 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.98%.
Comments
Annual performance, high quality, high growth, high gross profit and excellent performance of non-standard products
In 2021, the company's revenue increased by more than 50%, the national layout of chain stores and retail outlets, the product structure, the channel construction and the marketing efforts were continuously improved, which promoted the company to achieve high-quality and high growth. Specifically:
1) channel structure: steadily promote the national layout of chain stores and retail outlets, and steadily improve the quantity and quality of chain stores and retail outlets. In terms of the number of stores - in 2021, the number of customers of the company's retail outlets was more than 30000, and 273 chain stores were added in total Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) flagship stores have been successively launched in Shanghai, Wuhan, Xiamen and other cities to effectively enhance the brand influence; In terms of store quality - "323 new regulations" and "700" strategic landing bonus + digital management of chain stores have gradually shown their effectiveness, the quality of stores has been steadily improving, and the proportion of group purchase channels has been steadily increasing. Online business - in 21 years, the e-commerce business revenue was 580 million yuan (+ 45.3%). While carrying out a total of 46 online marketing activities, relying on the company's existing cross-border system, adopting the mode of "overseas direct purchase + bonded warehouse preparation", comprehensively integrating overseas supply chain resources, we are committed to creating a "cross-border purchase" business of one-stop cross-border purchase of global famous wines.
2) product structure: the Baijiu performance continued to increase in 2021, and the proportion of income increased further. In 2021, Baijiu, wine, imported spirits and other income were 65.3/4.7/3.1/1.5 billion, respectively, which changed by +52.0%/+31.7%/+53.3%/+73.3% compared with that of the previous year. The income share was 87.5%/6.31%/4.1%/2.1%, which was +0.6/-0.9/+0.07/+0.3 percentage point higher than that of the same period last year. 2) sales volume: Wine Baijiu sales volume in 2021 changed by +77.3%/+14.1% compared with the same period last year. 3) ton price: the liquor / wine business Baijiu in 2021 changed by -14.3%/+15.5% compared with the same period last year.
3) high gross profit non-standard: new products are launched to provide increment + Diaoyutai price increase bonus release + lotus structure upgrading + non-standard products are generally realized in large quantities to promote the double increase of revenue and profit. Non standard new products - in 2021, the company reached strategic cooperation with laigaohuai brand; Reach strategic cooperation with international well-known spirits group Pernod Ricard; Jointly develop and exclusively represent Xijiu · hoard 1988 Liujin with Guizhou Xijiu, jointly develop and exclusively represent jinjiugui with Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and jointly form a "gold lettered signboard" product matrix with Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (gold), Golden Lotus and other fine wines; In terms of non-standard old products - 2021q2 company raised the price for Diaoyutai. At the same time, 2021q3 company launched the lotus jade series. The price increase bonus release + structure improvement + volume increase have increased the scale profit of the original non-standard products. Since the gross profit margin of non-standard products can generally reach more than 40% - 50%, the increase of the proportion of non-standard product revenue has made a great contribution to the increase of profit.
4) supply chain end: the famous liquor supply chain has been continuously expanded. In terms of upstream, the company has continuously strengthened upstream cooperation in the supply chain and continuously expanded its product series; In terms of transportation, the company has 36 warehouses across the country, covering 23 provinces and 3 municipalities directly under the central government. The warehousing and logistics system with clear division of labor improves the company's operation efficiency and helps to control the operation cost
The decrease of expense rate and the improvement of superimposed structure pushed up profitability, and the ability to take goods increased significantly
In terms of profitability: benefiting from the significant contribution of non-standard products, the profit elasticity and strong cost control, the period expense rate decreased from 10.0% in the same period last year to 9.7% (the sales expense rate / management expense rate was 7.7% / 1.9% respectively, a change of + 0.1 / - 0.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year, in which the increase of sales expense was mainly due to the increase of salary expenses caused by the increase of business personnel and the increase of promotion expenses caused by the expansion of sales scale), In 2021, the gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company were 21.0% / 9.2% respectively, with a change of + 1.9 / + 1.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
In terms of operating cash flow: the operating cash flow in 2021 was -373 million yuan, a significant decrease compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in cash paid for purchasing goods in the current period.
In terms of prepayment: the prepayment of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and other products increased year-on-year, which increased the prepayment of the company by 161% to 1.95 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year, and the company's delivery capacity continued to improve.
Future highlights: simultaneous rise in volume and price of non-standard products + release of dividend from channel reform = performance or exceeding expectations
The company's performance is expected to exceed expectations due to the release of bonus from price increase of customized fine wine + the release of bonus from channel reform. The driving mechanism is as follows: the enhancement of channel and brand strength drives the volume of standard products - drives the revenue scale to exceed expectations, and the volume and price of customized fine wine rise together - drives the revenue and profit scale to exceed expectations.
Previously, the market generally believed that: 1) definition: since Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) main source of income is distribution business, Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) is a commercial circulation enterprise; 2) Products: since the dynamic sales of customized fine wine products are still being verified, the market believes that the future development of customized fine wine products will focus on volume increase + new product launch, while the contribution of price increase remains to be verified; 3) Channel: since the net increase of the company's stores has not increased rapidly in the past two years, and the company "pursues store quality", the market expects that the expansion speed of stores may be lower than expected, thus affecting the performance.
We believe that: 1) definition: at present, the company has gradually taken customized fine wine products as the focus of development (having terminal price pricing power and responsible for marketing and other matters). In fact, the company is essentially a fine wine service provider (a non-traditional trading company with brand operation ability); 2) Product: after the Diaoyutai price increase in 2021q2, the price increase bonus will be released gradually (it is expected to continue to be released in the next three quarters). At the same time, the performance of the contribution of new Lotus products to the profit side can also be expected. The annual revenue of lotus wine exceeded 500 million in 2021, and it is expected to continue the high performance in 2022; 3) Channel: in the future, the number of new stores of the company is expected to be stable at about Shenzhen Jt Automation Equipment Co.Ltd(300400) every year. Although it is not a rapid growth, the continuous improvement of single store revenue will ensure the high-quality growth of the company's performance end; In addition, after the outbreak of the epidemic, the company has launched many reform measures for channels (launching the "323" new regulations, launching the "700" strategy, continuing to expand the scale of group buying team, landing the Tongzhou R & D center that undertakes authentication, etc.), and the reform dividend will also be released this year.
Profit forecast and valuation
Considering that the company's "high fidelity" product system and omni-channel sales network are its core competitiveness, and the volume of customized fine wine and continuous improvement of channels are the growth points, the company has high growth in the future. It is estimated that the revenue growth rate of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 31.8%, 27.3% and 23.7% respectively; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 43.4%, 29.2% and 26.7% respectively; EPS is 2.3, 3.0 and 3.8 yuan / share respectively; PE was 17, 13 and 10 times respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Catalyst: Baijiu demand is expected to recover.
Risk tips: 1. Repeated epidemics lead to lower sales than expected; 2. Fidelity risk; 3. The effect of store expansion was less than expected.
