\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 048 Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) )
Over the past three decades, the company has grasped the development trend of policies, paid attention to the housing property, and maintained a steady increase in business scale. The sales scale of commercial housing ranks among the top five in the industry and the first among central enterprises, and maintained the trend of seeking progress while maintaining stability. The real estate industry has experienced strict policy regulation, credit risk exposure and so on. At present, it is at a low ebb, but the policy has been continuously improved. As a large central enterprise with financial advantages, the company keeps its advantages in adversity and is expected to make further breakthroughs in the favorable situation.
Key investment points:
Central enterprises are the leaders of real estate, deeply cultivate the main business and innovate: since its establishment 30 years ago, the company has complied with the development of policy trends, paid attention to the housing property and maintained the steady improvement of business scale. Over the years, the sales scale of commercial housing has ranked among the top five in the industry and the first among central enterprises, maintained the trend of steady progress and impacted the top three in the industry. In 2021, the sales scale of the company reached 534929 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 32% in recent 15 years, ranking the fourth in the industry; At the same time, the company has developed two wing businesses and achieved certain results. In particular, the fields of property, commerce and so on have formed effective complementarity with the company’s main business and constantly incubated new growth points.
Capture the market window, control the land cost and maintain the competitive advantage: (1) the company has sufficient land reserves. By the middle of 2021, the company’s land storage value was 2.5 trillion yuan, ranking second in the industry. The company’s land layout has always taken the first and second tier as the core to expand the city in depth. By the end of the middle of 2021, the resource reserves of 38 core cities deeply cultivated by the company accounted for more than 70%; (2) Looking back on the land acquisition process since the listing of the company, the company accurately grasped the market change trend, made concentrated efforts in the downward period of the market, and promoted the rapid development of the company in the upward period of the industry.
The operation is stable and the performance continues to be at the forefront of the industry: (1) from 2006 to 2021, the company’s revenue CAGR reached 32.83%, the net profit attributable to the parent CAGR reached 28.1%, and the profit growth rate remained at the forefront of the industry. Affected by the market, the company’s gross profit margin is under pressure, but it still maintains strong toughness as a whole; The ability of expense control is significant, and the net interest rate remains slightly improved, from 11% in 2016 to 14.03% at the end of the third quarter of 2021; (2) The debt structure is healthy, the leverage level is reasonable, and the financial advantages are prominent. The three red lines of the company remain green, the ratio of cash to short-term debt remains about twice, and the financing cost is only 4.7%, close to the historical low of the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 285 billion yuan, 326.1 billion yuan and 368 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 27.6 billion yuan, 29.0 billion yuan and 31.4 billion yuan respectively. The PE corresponding to the current share price (2022 / 3 / 28) will be 7.4, 7.0 and 6.5 times respectively, which will be covered for the first time and rated as “buy”.
Risk factors: the policy of the real estate industry was tightened more than expected, the credit risk of the industry continued to spread more than expected, and the settlement income was lower than expected.
