\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: the company announced that in 2021, the operating revenue was 109464 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.71%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.460 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.34%. In the first quarter of 2022, the company expects to achieve a total operating revenue of about 33.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about + 18%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 16.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about + 19%.
The new e-commerce platform promotes digitization, and digital marketing has taken an important step. On March 31, the digital marketing app – “I Maotai”, which was built by Maotai Liquor Co., Ltd., will be officially launched and put into trial operation. “I Maotai” is expected to launch four products: 53 degrees 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor (year of the renyin tiger), 53 degrees 500ml Maotai 1935, 53 degrees 375ml 2 (year of the renyin tiger), 53 degrees 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor (treasures). At present, “I Maotai” does not directly sell 500ml Feitian Maotai liquor. It will be integrated into 12 third-party e-commerce platforms to provide consumers with rush purchase information for purchasing Feitian Maotai liquor. Ding Xiongjun, chairman of the board of directors, put forward the “five in one marketing method” at the 2022 market work meeting held on February 14, which are resource integration, digital integration, cultural integration, brand aggregation and combination of management and service. “I Maotai” is an important measure of digital integration. It accumulates the preference information of users in various channels by means of registration, reservation and order placement on the online platform, and promotes the establishment of a new marketing system.
In recent two weeks, there have been many price corrections of Maotai series products, and the price has rebounded at present. According to today’s liquor price, as of March 27, 2022, the rated price of Feitian Maotai full container / bulk in 2022 and Feitian Maotai full container / bulk in 2021 decreased by 450 / 255 and 440 / 230 yuan respectively compared with March 1, 2022, reaching 2700 / 2500 and 2720 / 2530 yuan, and the rated price was adjusted rapidly. The main reasons for the decline in wholesale prices are 1) the outbreak of epidemic in many places across the country to reduce consumer demand, 2) the panic selling of dealers caused by the launch of “I Maotai”, 3) the abundant supply of Maotai, the smooth delivery channel after the superposition channel reform, and the gradual increase of social supply. At present, the channel sentiment has recovered. The price has rebounded on March 28 and has rebounded to 2810 / 2600 and 2830 / 2630 yuan on March 29.
Profitability continues to improve. In 2021q4, the operating revenue was 32.411 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.05%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 15.194 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.06%, the net interest rate attributable to the parent was 47.92%, a year-on-year increase of + 0.27pct, and the net interest rate attributable to the parent reached a new high in recent five years. The net profit of the parent company in the first quarter was about + 19% / + 15% year-on-year, mainly due to the net profit of the parent company in 2021. Maotai 1935 channel, a new single product, is profitable and has sufficient impetus, which is expected to contribute a new growth pole to Maotai.
Investment suggestion: the new management of the company will be aggressive after taking office and continue to convey the positive signal of Maotai’s development to the market. At the channel level, the company maintains the market with more market-oriented means, and the price is controlled to realize rational return. Continue to maintain the Buy-A rating. It is estimated that the company’s earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be 41.78/49.70/58.06 yuan, and the six-month target price is 2400 yuan, which is equivalent to the 41x P / E ratio in 2023.
Risk tip: policy and consumption tax risks, the risk that the control effect of Maotai channel does not meet the expectation, and the risk that the expectation of price increase fails
