\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 985 China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) )
Core view
The performance of the first quarter increased significantly in advance, with a year-on-year increase of 50% – 60% after retroactive restatement, slightly exceeding the previous performance announcement from January to February. According to the preliminary calculation of the company’s finance department, the company expects to realize an increase of RMB 1.037 billion to RMB 1.226 billion in the net profit attributable to the parent company (compared with that before retroactive restatement) in the first quarter of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 58% – 69%; (after retroactive restatement) increased by 941 million yuan to 1.130 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 50% – 60%. The company announced on March 16 that the net profit from January to February increased by about 50% year-on-year, which shows that the growth in the first quarter was further improved. The profit growth is expected to mainly come from the growth of nuclear power installation, the increase of power generation, the rise of electricity price and the operation of new energy. According to the company’s disclosure, the high growth is mainly due to the increase of on grid power in this period compared with the same period of last year, and the increase of comprehensive average on grid electricity price compared with the same period of last year. Combined with the above factors, the performance has increased significantly. It is estimated that Tianwan 6 (1.11gw) and Fuqing 5 (1.16gw) of nuclear power units will be put into operation in February and June 2021 respectively, and the nuclear power generation will increase year-on-year; In 2021, the installed capacity of new energy will increase by more than 3.6gw, and the power generation capacity of new energy will be increased. In addition, the price of nuclear power from Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian increased year-on-year.
Fuqing nuclear power unit 6 was put into commercial operation to improve the company’s installed capacity and first quarter performance. Since the successful grid connection on January 3, 2022 and the full power operation on February 19, Fuqing nuclear power 6, as the second unit of Hualong 1 pilot project, completed the 168 hour full power assessment on March 25 and met the commercial operation conditions. The revenue and related costs of the unit after grid connection are included in the current period, especially after full power operation, which is expected to contribute to the performance of the first quarter and the whole year. After putting into operation, the company’s holding nuclear power in operation increased to 25 units, and the capacity increased from 22.549 million kW to 23.71 million KW.
Under the “double carbon” goal, the profitability of nuclear power will maintain a relatively high level. With the transformation of “double carbon” target, nuclear power has the advantages of green, low comprehensive cost, stable output and high energy density. During the construction of the new power system, the price of electric energy generally rises, the utilization hours of nuclear power and the price of electricity have room to rise, and the profitability can be maintained at a high level; Nuclear power approval has returned to normal, and the medium and long-term installed capacity has increased steadily; In addition, the cost of the third and fourth generation nuclear power projects with safety advantages has room to decline, and the yield will continue to rise. New energy also drives performance growth with sufficient space. According to the company’s “14th five year plan” guidelines, the company plans to achieve 30GW of new energy holding installed capacity by 2025, about six times that of new energy at the end of 2020, driving performance growth. In the future, China Nuclear Huineng, the company’s new energy platform, is expected to complete the war. According to the current market valuation and the net profit and net asset scale of China Nuclear Huineng, it is expected to raise about 10-12 billion yuan. In addition, nuclear power provides sufficient cash flow. It is expected that the company will have less pressure and sufficient space to develop new energy financing in the 14th five year plan. Risk tip: the installed capacity of new energy and nuclear power did not meet expectations, the electricity price was lower than expected, and the utilization rate of nuclear power declined. Investment advice: maintain the “buy” rating. Based on the release performance of intensive operation of three nuclear power plants in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, the current and future nuclear power price will rise, the utilization rate will increase, the installed growth rate of new energy is expected to further increase, and the performance growth in 2022 is expected to reach a new high in recent years. Accordingly, maintain the profit forecast and target price. It is expected that the company’s earnings per share in the 21st-23rd year will be 0.44/0.68/0.74 yuan, and the growth rate of net profit will be 34% / 54% / 9% respectively. Give about 15.9-16.7 times PE in 2022, corresponding to a reasonable valuation of about 10.83-11.38 yuan. Maintain the “buy” rating.
