\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 202 Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) )
Event: Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) issued the annual report for 2021.
The wind turbine leader grew steadily, and the wind farm business brought significant performance growth. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 50.571 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.12%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.65%. Among them, the revenue of fan manufacturing sector was 39.932 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.42%. Driven by the high growth of Haifeng shipment, the gross profit margin increased by 3.30pcts to 17.71% year-on-year; The revenue of wind power service sector was 4.082 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.93%; The revenue of wind farm development business was 5.327 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32.56%, and the gross profit margin was stable at about 67%, which contributed to the main performance of the company.
The performance is dragged down by asset impairment, with limited medium and long-term impact. For prudence, the company accrued 643 million yuan of credit impairment loss and 1.115 billion yuan of asset impairment loss in 2021, which had an impact on the performance of the current year of 1.758 billion yuan. For the impairment loss of assets, the main reason is that the iteration cycle of wind turbine products is shortened, and the company clears up the existing product structure, resulting in the impairment of some development expenses and intangible assets. The impairment of goodwill mainly comes from the German subsidiary vensys energy AG.
The shipment of fan is 11.82gw, maintaining the leading position, with a significant trend of large-scale. The gradual large-scale production of medium speed permanent magnet products brings opportunities to improve the gross profit margin of the main engine. In 2021, the company shipped 11.82gw of wind turbines, a year-on-year decrease of 14.66%, of which 10.68gw were shipped abroad, a year-on-year decrease of 17.39%, mainly due to the contraction of China’s onshore wind power market after the rush to load. According to the statistics of Bloomberg new energy finance, in 2021, the company’s Chinese market share accounted for 20%, ranking first, and the global market share was 12.14%, ranking second. From the perspective of external shipment structure, the sales capacity of 6S / 8s and 3S / 4S units increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 305% and 210% to 1.95 and 4.45gw respectively, and the proportion of sales capacity increased to 18% and 42%, with a significant trend of large-scale. In terms of medium speed permanent magnet units, 108.5mw was sold in 2021. By the end of 2021, the total number of external orders on hand was 4.82gw, accounting for about 28.5%. It is expected that the shipment of medium speed permanent magnet units is expected to increase rapidly. In the process of large-scale, medium speed permanent magnet units have more prominent cost reduction ability than direct drive models, which is expected to bring opportunities to improve the gross profit margin of main engines.
The wind farm development business is progressing smoothly and the scale continues to expand. In 2021, the company added 1.41gw of wind farm equity grid connected capacity and transferred 0.83gw of equity grid connected capacity. By the end of 2021, the cumulative grid connected capacity had reached 6.07gw (including 5.62gw in China and 0.45gw overseas), with a year-on-year increase of about 11%. The equity capacity under construction was 2.59gw, and the scale of wind farm business development continued to expand. In terms of wind farm transfer, during the reporting period, the company transferred a total equity capacity of 0.83gw, with a corresponding equity investment income of RMB 959 million, equivalent to a single GW transfer income of RMB 1.1-1.2 billion. The subsequent wind farm transfer business is expected to contribute to the performance increment.
Profit forecast: the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.612/4.235/4.778 billion from 2022 to 2024, corresponding to 15.3/13.1/11.6 times of the valuation, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the industry demand is less than expected, and the executive price of the fan is less than expected.
