\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 597 Bright Dairy & Food Co.Ltd(600597) )
Event: on March 28, the company announced that the revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 were 29.206 billion yuan and 592 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.6% / - 2.6% respectively.
The annual revenue grew steadily, and the effect of channel adjustment became more and more obvious. In 2021, the revenue reached 29.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.6%, exceeding the target (the completion rate was 108%). On the one hand, it benefited from the strong demand for white milk after the epidemic, on the other hand, it benefited from the effective adjustment of distribution channels and the development of new business at will; 21q4 achieved a revenue of 7.149 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.6%. The growth rate slowed down slightly or was dragged down by overseas business, but the overall growth continued to be steady. By product, the liquid milk / other dairy products / animal husbandry / other income in 2021 was + 20% / 9% / 11% / 3% year-on-year respectively. The high growth of liquid milk in the core category was due to new products + new channels + health attributes. The growth of other dairy products was slow, mainly due to the drag of the development of xinlaite. In terms of regions, in 2021, Shanghai / overseas / overseas markets increased by + 17% / 20% / 5% year-on-year respectively, and the speed of foreign markets increased significantly year-on-year. It is expected to be mainly due to the expansion of sales radius of fresh pasture products and the expansion of free ordering and other channels. In terms of channels, the direct sales / distribution revenue in 2021 was + 5% / 20% year-on-year respectively. Although the number of dealers in Shanghai / other places decreased by 14 / 264 respectively, the revenue of a single dealer improved year-on-year, mainly due to the company's efforts to optimize channels.
The slowdown of competition leads to the reduction of cost investment, overseas losses and raw milk price pressure erode profitability. 1) Gross profit margin: the gross profit margin in 2021 was 18.4%, year-on-year -7.5pct, year-on-year -3.7pct after excluding freight adjustment factors, mainly due to the price pressure of raw milk. 2) Expense ratio: in 2021, the sales expense ratio was 12.5%, year-on-year -4.6pct, and year-on-year -0.5pct after excluding freight adjustment factors, mainly due to the reduction of marketing expenses under the background of slowing competition; The management expense rate was 3.1%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.5pct. 3) Net interest rate: the net interest rate in 2021 was 1.9%, with a year-on-year increase of - 1.2pct, mainly due to the pressure of raw milk price and the drag of overseas xinlaite business. After excluding xinlaite business, the net interest rate was 2.8%.
Outlook: it is expected to continue steady growth in 2022. Considering the strong demand for white milk after the epidemic, the company's new products + new channels contribute to the increase of income, superimpose the adjustment of distribution channels and release dividends, and the income side is expected to continue to grow steadily; In addition, under the background of slowing competition, the price of raw milk has seen a downward inflection point in January. It is expected that the profitability of the company will improve, and the business goal of 2022 is expected to be achieved (revenue + 9% year-on-year).
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 657 / 741 / 850 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.0% / 12.8% / 14.7%. At present, the corresponding PE of the stock price is 25 / 22 / 19x. The PE of the company in 2022 is close to the average level of 22x in the dairy industry (consistent expectation of wind), so it is rated as "prudent recommendation".
Risk tips: raw milk price fluctuation exceeds expectations, cost investment exceeds expectations, food safety problems, etc.
