\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 659 Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of 8.996 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.36%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.749 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 161.93%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 1.66 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 166.16%. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the operating revenue was 2.701 billion yuan. An increase of 39.65% year-on-year and 13.87% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 518 million yuan, an increase of 105.22% year-on-year and 13.60% month on month; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 504 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 106.60% and a month on month increase of 14.55%. The performance slightly exceeded expectations.
Negative electrode material: graphitization layout has been steadily promoted, and the gross profit margin has decreased through large-scale smoothing. (1) In 2021, the company’s main business income of cathode materials was 5.129 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.38%; The sales volume was 97200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 54.48%; Graphitization processing achieved an operating revenue of 1.009 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.60%. (2) At present, the company has formed an effective production capacity of cathode materials with an annual output of more than 150000 tons, including 110000 tons of graphitization processing and 100000 tons of carbonization processing supporting capacity. In 2021, the downstream demand of the company is strong, close to full production and sales, and the production sales ratio reaches 96%. (3) In 2022, the company’s Sichuan Zichen phase I 100000 tons will enter the substantive construction stage. It is expected to be put into operation before the end of the year, with a total capacity of more than 250000 tons, corresponding to an annual shipment of about 160000 tons. (4) During the reporting period, the prices of raw materials, graphitization and electricity all increased, and the cost pressure of the industry increased. The company promoted the integrated layout in advance and had strong bargaining power. Some costs were transmitted downstream. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company only decreased slightly. The company has significant scale advantages. The company binds core customers, and the sales expenses are well controlled. The net profit margin of Jiangxi Zichen, the core subsidiary of the company’s negative business, has increased by 2PP compared with 2020. It is expected that the company will still be able to smooth the decline of gross profit margin caused by rising costs through scale and specialization in the future and maintain a high unit profit.
Coated diaphragm: deep binding with downstream customers and integrated and coordinated development. (1) In 2021, the company’s main business income from diaphragm and coating processing was 2.195 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 171.07%; PVDF products achieved an operating revenue of 447 million yuan; The company’s Coated diaphragm sales reached 2.171 billion square meters, accounting for 35.19% of China’s wet diaphragm shipments. (2) At present, the company has a coating capacity of 4 billion square meters, a base film capacity of 100 million square meters and a PVDF capacity of 5000 tons. It is estimated that Sichuan zhuoqin 400 million square meters base film coating integration project will be completed in 2022 to further improve the company’s production capacity. In addition, the company actively carries out long-term layout. It is expected that the coating capacity of the company will reach 6 billion square meters in 2025 after the completion of production capacity in Qionglai, Sichuan and Zhaoqing, Guangdong. (3) The company benefited from the business collaboration in the field of diaphragm base membrane, coating materials, coating processing and coating equipment. During the reporting period, the proportion of multi-layer coating processing business increased rapidly, the localization and substitution of key coating materials and adhesives were promoted smoothly, and the cost was effectively reduced. The net profit margin of Ningde zhuogao, the core subsidiary of the company’s coating diaphragm business, increased by 2PP compared with that in 2020. (4) The diaphragm business of the company adopts the customer-oriented strategy, sets up factories near downstream customers, gives priority to meeting the needs of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , ATL and other core customers, and has strong shipping certainty.
Equity incentive: the equity incentive scheme is implemented, and the long-term incentive and restraint mechanism demonstrates the company’s confidence. In March 2022, the company issued the 2022 stock option and restricted stock incentive plan. The assessment requires that the operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 shall not be less than 12.5/16.5 billion yuan, and the net profit from 2022 to 2024 shall not be less than 2.6/4/5.4 billion yuan. The assessment criteria of the company’s stock option and restricted stock incentive plan are basically consistent with market expectations, which can effectively motivate managers and employees, help to mobilize enthusiasm, and highlight the company’s confidence in future development.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.89 yuan, 5.85 yuan and 8.15 yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will maintain a compound growth rate of 47% in the next three years. Considering the current decline in the valuation level of diaphragm and negative electrode industries, the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are in the game stage, and the “hold” rating is still maintained.
Risk tips: the risk of raw material prices or sharp fluctuations, the risk of increased competition caused by overcapacity in the industry, the risk of product upgrading and substitution of emerging technology routes, and the risk that the company’s production capacity is less than expected.
