\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 754 Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) )
Event:
Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) released the annual report for 2021: the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.989 billion yuan / + 3.23% in 2021q4, a month on month ratio of – 3.19%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 04 million yuan (2020q4 is – 191 million yuan), a month on month ratio of – 95.88%, deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent company of – 77 million yuan (2020q4 is – 265 million yuan, 2021q3 is 88 million yuan); In 2021, the operating revenue was 11.339 billion yuan / + 14.56%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 101 million yuan / – 8.18%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of – 122 million yuan (2020: – 700 million yuan).
Key investment points:
Q4 has been sporadic for many times in China and recovered year-on-year overseas. It is expected to continue overseas in 2022
Recovery.
1) revenue side: in the fourth quarter, the epidemic was distributed many times throughout the country, the Q4 revenue fell month on month, and the annual revenue recovered steadily. The company realized an operating revenue of 2.989 billion yuan in 2021q4, yoy + 3.23%, Mom – 3.19%; The annual operating revenue in 2021 was 11.339 billion yuan / + 14.56%.
Sub business: the revenue of hotel business in 2021q4 was 2.924 billion yuan / + 3.93%, and that in 2021 was 11.09 billion yuan / + 14.94%; The revenue of food and catering business in 2021q4 was 65 million yuan / – 21.72%, and that in 2021 was 249 million yuan / – 0.02%.
By Region: the revenue of domestic hotels in 2021q4 is 2.252 billion yuan / – 9.28%, accounting for 75.34%, of which the early service fee income is 221 million yuan / – 21.81%, and the continuous franchise fee income is 1.075 billion yuan / + 14.02%; In 2021, the annual revenue was 8.8 billion yuan / + 12.66%, accounting for 77.61%, including 812 million yuan / + 9.72% of the initial service fee income and 3.549 billion yuan / + 25.72% of the continuous franchise fee income. The revenue of overseas hotels in 2021q4 was 672 million yuan / + 103.60%, accounting for 22.48%, and the annual revenue in 2021 was 2.290 billion yuan / + 24.66%, accounting for 20.20%.
2) profit side: affected by the epidemic, Q4 performance fell month on month. The company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 04 million yuan in 2021q4, compared with -191 million yuan in 2020q4, a month on month increase of – 95.88%; Deduct net profit not attributable to parent company of RMB -77 million, RMB -265 million in 2020q4 and RMB 88 million in 2021q3; The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 101 million yuan / – 8.18%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company: – 122 million yuan (2020: – 700 million yuan). Among them, non recurring gains and losses are expected to be mainly government subsidies, and the government subsidies included in non recurring gains and losses throughout the year are about 410 million. Q4 income tax expense is 132 million, accounting for 77% of the total profit, which is mainly due to the year-on-year increase of deductible temporary differences and deductible losses of unrecognized deferred income tax. It is speculated that some loss making businesses are due to the provision of income tax deduction.
Segment profit: in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company of domestic hotels was 444 million yuan / – 48.97%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of overseas hotels was -445 million yuan (2020: – 833 million yuan), of which the loss of Louvre Hotel was 51.66 million euros, which was in line with the previous guidelines and 50 million yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company of food and catering business is 204 million yuan / – 20.62%.
3) revenue guidelines for 2022: the company expects to achieve a revenue of 136142 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 20%-25% over the previous year, with revenue from Chinese mainland expected to grow by 9%-14% over the same period last year. Operating income from Chinese mainland is expected to grow by 65-70% over the same period, and Europe is gradually liberalized, and it is expected to recover significantly overseas.
Domestic operation data Q4 was slightly dragged down by the epidemic, and the domestic and foreign enterprises recovered steadily throughout the year. Domestic: in 2021q4, RevPAR was 133.91 yuan / – 11.20%, recovering to 86.36% in the same period in 2019, with a month on month ratio of – 3.77%; OCC was 62.18% / -10.70pct, with a year-on-year increase of -11.21pct in 2019 and a month on month increase of -1.84pct; ADR was 215.36 yuan / + 4.08%, up from + 1.92% in 2019 and – 0.92% month on month. In 2021, RevPAR was 137.52 yuan / + 15.33%, recovering to 87.45% in the same period in 2019; OCC was 64.40% / 3.71 PCT, up from -10.28 PCT in 2019,; ADR was 213.54 yuan / + 8.69%, up from + 1.41% in 2019.
Overseas: in 2021q4, RevPAR was 29.55 euros / + 77.80%, recovering to 81.57% in the same period in 2019, with a chain comparison of – 8.17%; OCC was 52.89% / + 18.75pct, a year-on-year increase of -10.13pct in 2019 and -3.30pct month on month; ADR was 55.88 euros / + 14.77%, year-on-year (- 2.80%) and month on month (- 2.43%). In 2021, RevPAR was 24.85 euros / + 25.25%, recovering to 66.96% in the same period in 2019; OCC was 46.01% / + 8.89 PCT, up from – 18.92 PCT in 2019; ADR was 54.02 euros / + 1.05%, compared with – 5.51% in 2019.
The opening of stores throughout the year exceeded expectations, and 1500 new stores are expected to be opened in 2022.
1) Q4 company has 497 newly opened hotels / – 13.72%, the opening speed (number of stores opened / number of hotels in stock in the previous quarter) is 4.87% / – 1.44pct, 79 hotels have been withdrawn / – 27.39%, 0 hotels have been converted from opening to preparation, and 418 hotels have been added / + 65.22%.
2) in 2021, 1763 hotels were newly opened, exceeding the annual opening plan of 1500. The opening speed (number of hotels opened / number of hotels in stock in the previous quarter) was 18.74% / – 2.89pct, 239 hotels were withdrawn / – 28.04%, 317 hotels were transferred from opening to preparation / – 51.52%, and the net increase of 1207 hotels / + 35.31%.
3) as of December 31, 2021, the total number of contracted hotels has reached 15373 / + 6.33%, of which 10613 hotels have opened / + 12.83%.
4) asset light expansion. Net increase of 413 franchisees in Q4 / + 42.91%, annual net increase of 1220 / + 28.83%, stock of 9692, accounting for 91.32% / + 1.25pct; The number of Direct stores Q4 increased by 5, decreased by 13 in the whole year, and the stock was 921, accounting for 8.68% / -1.25pct.
5) Q4 economy stores have recovered strongly, with medium and high-end hotels accounting for more than half. The net increase in Q4 of medium and high-end hotels is 332 / + 22.06%, and the net increase in the whole year is 1095 / + 27.47%. By the end of 2021, the stock of medium and high-end hotels is 5517, accounting for 51.98% / + 4.97pct; The net increase of economy hotels Q4 is 86 / + 405.88%, and the net increase of 112 / + 239.39% in the whole year. By the end of 2021, there are 5096 economy hotels in stock, accounting for 48.02% / – 4.97pct.
6) guidelines for store expansion in 2022: it is planned to add 1500 newly opened hotels and 2500 newly contracted hotels in 2022.
The annual cost growth is in line with expectations, waiting for the back office integration to release the cost control effect.
2021q4: the operating cost is 1.860 billion yuan / – 2.67%, accounting for 62.23% / – 3.77 PCT, with a month on month ratio of -0.93 PCT; The sales expense is 294 million yuan / + 16.21%, with a month on month ratio of + 18.53%, and the sales expense rate is 9.84% / + 1.10pct, with a month on month ratio of + 1.80pct; The management fee is 653 million yuan / – 9.18%, with a chain comparison of + 17.67%, and the management fee rate is 21.85% / – 2.98 PCT, with a chain comparison of + 3.87 PCT; The R & D cost is -05 million yuan / + 66.67%, with a chain comparison of -146.48%, and the R & D cost rate is -0.17% / -0.06pct, with a chain comparison of -0.52pct; The financial expense is 116 million yuan / – 1.69%, with a month on month ratio of – 8.22%, and the financial expense rate is 3.88% / – 0.19pct, with a month on month ratio of -0.21pct; The total cost and sales, management, R & D and financial expenses are 2.918 billion yuan / – 2.67%, with a chain ratio of + 0.96%, accounting for 97.62% / – 5.91pct and + 4.02pct.
In 2021, the operating cost was 7.458 billion yuan / + 1.47%, accounting for 65.77% / – 8.49 PCT; The sales expense is 887 million yuan / + 31.41%, and the sales expense rate is 7.82% / + 1.00pct; The management fee is 2.321 billion yuan / + 1.09%, and the management fee rate is 20.47% / – 2.73pct; The R & D cost is 18 million yuan / – 30.77%, and the R & D cost rate is 0.16% / – 0.10pct; The financial expense is 540 million yuan / + 50.42%, and the financial expense rate is 4.76% / + 1.14 PCT; The total cost and sales, management, R & D and financial expenses are 11.224 billion yuan / + 4.84%, accounting for 98.99% / – 9.18pct.
Investment rating: the company opened more stores than expected in 2021, with excellent ability to expand leading stores. In 2022, the company continued to promote background integration and waited for the release of fee control effect. We expect that from 2022 to 2024, the company will realize an operating revenue of RMB 138.96/184.72/25.837 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 23% / 33% / 40%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 717 / 1913 / 3463 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 612% / 167% / 81%; The corresponding valuation is 96.40/36.12/19.95 XPE. For the first time, give a “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the global epidemic has repeatedly affected travel, the speed of store expansion is lower than expected, the industry market competition is intensified, macroeconomic fluctuations, and the improvement of organizational structure integration is lower than expected.
