\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 410 Glodon Company Limited(002410) )
Event: Glodon Company Limited(002410) published the annual report for the year of 21. In 2021, the revenue was 5.619 billion (+ 40%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 661 million (+ 100%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 651 million (+ 116%). 21q4 realized a revenue of 2.018 billion (+ 42%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 186 million (+ 84%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 197 million (+ 110%) after deducting non profits. The revenue side exceeded expectations.
Cost business revenue exceeded expectations, and non cloud business performed well. In 2021, the company’s cost business realized a revenue of 3.813 billion (+ 37%), of which the revenue from non cloud business was 1.252 billion (year-on-year + 7%, exceeding market expectations), and the revenue from cloud business was 2.561 billion (year-on-year + 58%). In 2021, 3.1 billion new cloud contracts were signed (year-on-year + 39%), and the cost business realized an income of 4.353 billion after restoration (year-on-year + 28%, the growth rate reaching a new high since 2014). We are optimistic that the construction of public resource trading system and infrastructure will continue to boost the growth of non cloud business. In addition, with the transformation of cost software from efficiency tool to cost control tool, it is optimistic that the penetration rate of the company’s cost software will continue to increase.
The revenue of construction business in 21 years is + 28% year-on-year, and the growth rate is expected to be close to the turning point. In the whole year, the construction business achieved a revenue of 1.206 billion (year-on-year + 28%), and the gross profit margin was 65.77%, year-on-year -6.3pct. We judge that it is mainly due to the increase of large-scale projects, resulting in the increase of the proportion of hardware integration. By the end of 2021, the cumulative number of service projects of digital construction project level products has exceeded 55000, and the cumulative number of service customers has exceeded 5000; In 2021, 16000 new projects were added, 1600 new customers were added, and new infrastructure products were issued in June. We believe that after several years of development, the company’s construction business has enough orders on hand and project experience to support the acceleration of revenue growth. As the year when the company’s “August 3rd” plan ends, the inflection point of revenue growth of construction business is expected to come in 2022.
The design revenue is gradually becoming large-scale, and we look forward to the landing of new products. The design business achieved a revenue of 131 million in 21 years (year-on-year + 250%, and completed the M & A of Hongye Technology), with a gross profit margin of about 96%. In October of 21, the company officially released the digital architectural design products (stand-alone public beta version) based on independent graphics platform in the field of housing construction, and accelerated the research and development of structure, electromechanical, component and collaborative products. By the end of 2021, the installed capacity of public beta versions of digital architectural design products had exceeded 1700. With the increasing improvement of the company’s design product matrix, the strengthening of the supply capacity of the overall solution of intelligent building integrating design, construction and cost will further consolidate the company’s competitive barriers.
Raise the profit forecast and maintain the “buy” rating. To sum up, we believe that under the background of the recovery of infrastructure and the transformation of cost software to cost control tools, the high growth rate of the company’s cost business is expected to remain; The accumulation of project experience and abundant orders on hand have also laid a foundation for the growth and acceleration of construction business; The linkage effect of “design, cost and construction” brought by the increasingly complete digital design product matrix is also expected to be reflected. By raising the profit forecast, it is expected that the company will achieve a revenue of RMB 7.222/92.14/11.185 billion from 2022 to 2024, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 1.074/14.79/1.918 billion respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be RMB 0.90/1.24/1.61 respectively. Using segment valuation, the company is given a target market value of 104.3-114.2 billion in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 87.75-95.98 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tip: the cloud rate and renewal rate of cost business are lower than expected; The construction industry has entered a downward cycle; Policy changes in the construction industry; Intensified competition in engineering construction business, etc.
