\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 884 Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) )
Key investment points
The booming demand for new energy vehicles and the contribution of polarizers to profits and investment income contributed to a significant increase in performance
In 2022q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased significantly by 148% to 181% year-on-year, mainly benefiting from: 1) the high prosperity of the new energy vehicle industry, which continued to drive the demand for cathode materials; 2) The combined polarizer business contributed to the performance on February 1, 2021; 3) The corresponding investment income was obtained by selling 100% equity of Hunan Yongshan lithium industry, and the deduction of non net profit was 560 million yuan to 600 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 99% to 113%. The company previously disclosed that the revenue from January to February 2022 was about 3.214 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 44%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 566 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 313%. On the whole, the performance growth in 2022 achieved a good start.
The expansion of negative electrode capacity has entered the peak period of production, and the self supply rate of graphitization has increased
At present, the company has a full production capacity of more than 100000 tons. At present, the production capacity of 40000 tons of negative electrode materials in phase I of Inner Mongolia base has been put into operation, and 60000 tons in phase II is in the stage of capacity climbing; Sichuan Meishan base plans to build a 200000 ton integration project, of which the first phase of 100000 ton capacity has been started in January 2022. It is estimated that by 2023, the company’s new capacity will be fully released, with a total capacity of 300000 tons. In terms of industrial chain safety, the company’s new production lines are equipped with graphitization production lines, and the self supply rate and production efficiency are expected to be improved; The company is deeply bound with Jinzhou petrochemical, a key oil refining enterprise in China, to ensure the supply of needle coke.
Silicon carbon negative electrode can be shipped, stripping the positive electrode, focusing negative electrode and polarizer
The company’s silicon oxygen negative electrode is at the forefront of the industry. Its products have the advantages of compact and stable structure, low expansion and long cycle stability. It has been applied in batch in the consumer market. In the field of power batteries, it has passed the evaluation and is sending samples. In 2021, the company’s mixed silicon oxygen negative electrode shipment was at the level of 100 tons. At the same time, 4680 battery related materials are sending samples, which has broad development prospects. In 2021, the company transferred the controlling interest of Shanshan energy to BASF. In early 2022, the company announced the sale of 100% equity of Yongshan lithium, gradually stripped off the positive material business and refocused the negative material and polarizer business. According to the requirements of equity incentive assessment, based on 2021, the net profit growth of polarizer from 2022 to 2025 is 14% / 30% / 50% / 67% respectively; The net profit of negative electrode increased by 65% / 165% / 300% / 450% respectively, and the company has sufficient confidence in development.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company is a leading supplier of lithium battery materials in China and actively layout the LCD polarizer business. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company of the company in 21-23 years will be 3.204, 3.222 and 4.217 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS in 21-23 years will be 1.50, 1.50 and 1.97 yuan / share respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price will be 18, 18 and 14 times respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: price changes in raw materials and graphitization, sales volume of new energy vehicles not meeting expectations, and intensified market competition
