\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 597 Bright Dairy & Food Co.Ltd(600597) )
Key points
Event: Bright Dairy & Food Co.Ltd(600597) released the annual report of 2021. The annual operating revenue was 29.206 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.59% according to the adjusted caliber, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 592 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.55%. 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 7.149 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 9.61%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 147 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.31%.
The annual revenue target was successfully completed, and the overseas business was under pressure. In 2021, the company’s revenue side achieved its business objectives, with a completion rate of 108.17%. Sub products: in 2021, liquid milk / other dairy products / animal husbandry products achieved revenue of RMB 17.10/84.8/2.29 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 19.85% / + 8.86% / + 12.95%; In terms of sales volume, the sales volume of fresh milk / yogurt / milk powder in 2021 was + 22% / + 10% / + 15% year-on-year. By Region: in 2021, the income of Shanghai / overseas / overseas was 7.965/14.234/6.601 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.81% / + 19.54% / + 4.89%. The annual revenue of New Zealand xinlaite was 6.743 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.68%, and the net profit loss was 40 million yuan, mainly due to: 1) the price of raw milk in New Zealand increased significantly; 2) The shortage of shipping capacity in New Zealand has led to a significant increase in international shipping costs; 3) The epidemic affected the cross-border sales channels of key customers. Sub channels: in 2021, the revenue from direct sales / distribution / other channels was RMB 7.476/21.170154 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.45% / + 19.86% / – 42.47%. The large decline in revenue from other channels was mainly due to the company’s integrated sales model and the closure of some low gross profit channels. By the end of 2021, the company had 4204 dealers, including 402 dealers in Shanghai, a net increase of 1 compared with the end of the third quarter; There were 3802 foreign dealers, a net decrease of 308 compared with the end of the third quarter.
Rising costs lead to impaired profitability. In 2021, the completion rate of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company was 88.54%. Under the comparable standard after adjustment in 2020: 1) the company’s gross profit margin in 2021 was 18.35%, with a year-on-year increase of -3.7pct, mainly due to the upward price of raw materials, the pressure on the cost side and the impact of the epidemic. 2) The sales expense ratio was 12.5%, year-on-year -0.46pct, and the management expense ratio was 2.79%, year-on-year -0.48pct. 3) Overall, the net interest rate of the company in 2021 was 2.03%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.38pct. Looking forward to 2022, the price of 22q1 raw milk will decline slightly compared with the same period, and the upward pressure on the price is expected to slow down this year; With the gradual stabilization of xinlaite’s operation, the profit side of the company is expected to improve in 2022.
Strengthen the development of new products and consolidate the foundation of milk source. The company has grasped the differentiated needs of consumers and launched a variety of new products such as red cultural and creative products and differentiated products for women. At the same time, we will continue to promote the construction of milk source base. The construction of pasture will be started in Anhui, Ningxia and Heilongjiang provinces in 2021. It is expected that after the pasture is completed, the number of cattle will be increased by about 31000, which can effectively improve the company’s milk source self-sufficiency. In 2022, the company’s business plan is to realize an operating revenue of 31.777 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 670 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 13%.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering that the cost pressure still exists and the recovery of overseas business remains to be seen, the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company in 22-23 years is lowered to 683 / 784 million yuan (compared with the previous forecast of – 9.36% / – 8.15%), and the net profit attributable to parent company in 2024 is 894 million yuan. The corresponding EPS from 2022 to 2024 is 0.50/0.57/0.65 yuan, and the corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 23 / 21 / 18 times respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: industry competition intensifies, raw milk prices rise higher than expected, and food safety problems.
