\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 202 Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) )
Key investment points
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 16.65% year-on-year, and the profit was improved. If the impact of impairment was excluded, the profit was + 65.6% year-on-year: the company released the annual report of 2021, realizing a revenue of 50.571 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 10.12%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.65%. Gross profit margin 22.55%, year-on-year + 4.82pct; The net interest rate was 6.84%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.57pct. Among them, 2021q4 achieved a revenue of 17.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 11.51% and a month on month increase of + 8.78%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 444 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 50.34% and a month on month increase of – 61.85%. The decrease in Q4 net profit was mainly due to the provision for asset impairment of 963 million yuan and credit impairment of 143 million yuan. The total provision for asset and credit impairment in the whole year was 1.758 billion yuan, reducing the net profit attributable to the parent company by 1.451 billion yuan. After significant impairment, the risk is fully released. Excluding the impact of impairment, the annual net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.908 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 65.6%.
Main profits contributed by wind turbine manufacturing and sales and wind farm development: in 2021, the company’s wind turbine manufacturing and sales, wind power services, wind farm development, other businesses, adjustment and offset contributed net profits of RMB 2.526 billion, 0.09 billion, 2.646 billion, 255 million and – 1.945 billion respectively. Among them, the net profit contributed by wind turbine manufacturing and sales and wind farm development increased by 89% and 46% respectively. The sharp increase in fan sales profit is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of shipments of large offshore models, and the improvement of overall profit driven by high gross profit. In 2021, the newly added equity grid connected installed capacity of self operated wind farms outside China was 1.41gw, and the Transferred Equity grid connected capacity was 0.83gw. The power generation income was 5.327 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.56%, and the equity investment income of transferred wind farm projects was 949 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 8.3%.
In 2021, the export sales of wind turbines decreased by 17.39%, mainly due to the phased decline of new installed capacity in China after the rush for installation. In 2021, 55.8gw of new wind power will be hoisted nationwide, with a decrease of 3%. The export sales of the company’s fans were 10.68gw, down 17% at the same time, and the installed capacity was 11.38gw, down 8% at the same time. The market share was 20%, with a slight decline of 1.3%, ranking first in China for 11 consecutive years. From the perspective of export structure, the sales volume of 6S / 8s and 3S / 4S units increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of + 305.01% and 210.27% respectively, and the proportion increased by 14.54pct and 30.56pct to 18.26% and 41.65% respectively. MSPM sales volume is 108.50mw, achieving a breakthrough of zero. The sales volume of 1.5MW and 2S decreased significantly, accounting for 0.56% and 38.51% respectively.
There are sufficient orders on hand, and the sales volume will be guaranteed in 2022. In 2021, the bidding price of wind turbine decreased significantly, and the bidding volume of the driving industry was large, including land wind bidding of 51.37gw, a year-on-year increase of + 106.3%. By the end of 2021, the company’s external orders in hand totaled 16.87gw, a year-on-year increase of + 17.20%, including 3.60gw of bid winning orders and 13.27gw of signed contracts to be executed. In terms of structure, MSPM has 4.82gw of external orders in hand. We expect that shipments will account for more than 50% in 2022, which will become a new growth point of performance.
Actively promoting the dual sea strategy has achieved remarkable results: in the “rush for loading” at sea in 2021, the company completed all order delivery and grid connection, with a delivery volume of 1.95gw, a year-on-year increase of + 305.01%, exceeding the sum of previous years. The company actively promotes the independent research and development of marine products, and is expected to make full profits with the advent of marine parity. Overseas, in addition to making a number of breakthroughs in key markets such as Australia and Europe, we have also actively deployed emerging markets such as Africa and Asia. In 2021, the overseas sales revenue was 6.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 31.90%. By the end of 2021, the orders on hand were 2.28gw, a year-on-year increase of + 14.31%.
The expenses decreased significantly and the expense rate increased slightly: the three expenses of the company decreased by 3.63% year-on-year to 7.56 billion yuan in 2021, and the expense rate increased by 1.01pct to 14.94%. Among them, the rates of sales, management, R & D and financial expenses decreased by 0.21pct, increased by 0.23pct, increased by 0.50PCT and increased by 0.49pct to 6.28%, 3.40%, 3.13% and 2.14% respectively.
The cash flow decreased slightly and the inventory decreased significantly: in 2021, the net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 4.887 billion, a year-on-year increase of – 9.13%, of which the net cash flow from Q4 was RMB 7.116 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 132.76%; In 2021, the cash from commodity sales was 48.805 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 8.47%. The inventory at the end of 2021 was 4.818 billion yuan, a decrease of 900 million yuan over the beginning of the year. The inventory turnover days in 2021 were 48.42 days, a year-on-year decrease of 10.03%.
Profit forecast and investment rating: due to the sharp decline in the price of wind turbines and the pressure on the company’s profits, we will reduce the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 4.163/4.808 billion yuan to 3.607/4.035 billion yuan in 20222023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.591 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 4.35% / 11.87% / 13.76% and EPS of 0.85/0.96/1.09 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 15.34/13.72/12.06 times respectively. Considering the leading position of the company, 20 times PE will be given in 2022, Corresponding to the target price of 17 yuan, maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: price competition intensifies, demand is less than expected, etc.
