\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 811 Orient Group Incorporation(600811) )
Event overview
Recently, Xiamen Dongfang Yinxiang Oil Co., Ltd., the holding subsidiary of the company, signed the technology development contract for 200000 t / a seawater extraction of potassium chloride project with Hebei University of technology and Professor Yuan Junsheng's team. The two cooperated to give full play to the latter's engineering construction and design experience and technical advantages on the basis of the company's existing potassium ion adsorption technology, eluent circulation technology and energy management technology reserves, Accelerate the industrialization path design and engineering design of the first phase of 200000 t / a seawater extraction potassium chloride project, and carry out the preparation for the construction of relevant intelligent chemical plants.
Analysis and judgment:
Strengthen school enterprise cooperation and promote the industrialization of extracting potassium from seawater
For nearly 15 years, the company has paid close attention to the innovative development of upstream and downstream agriculture and actively carried out R & D cooperation. According to China Securities Network on January 29, the company has recently taken seawater potassium extraction as one of its key projects. The report points out that the company's R & D team has made key breakthroughs in the core technology of potassium ion seawater separation through a series of experiments, which is currently in the pilot stage. The results of continuous laboratory data monitoring from December 2021 to now are much higher than the comparative data of relevant industry literature. Now, the effect is expected to meet the requirements of industrialization and transformation. Recently, the technology development contract of 200000 t / a seawater extraction potassium chloride project signed by the company's holding subsidiary, Hebei University of technology and Professor Yuan Junsheng's team gives full play to the latter's engineering construction and design experience and technical advantages on the basis of the company's existing potassium ion adsorption technology, eluent circulation technology and energy management technology reserves, Accelerate the industrialization path design and engineering design of the first phase of 200000 t / a seawater extraction potassium chloride project, carry out the preparation for the construction of relevant intelligent chemical plants, promote the industrialization of the project as soon as possible, and the company's seawater extraction technology has taken a key step forward in the industrial production.
The potassium fertilizer gap is huge, and the market prospect of extracting potassium from seawater is broad
Potassium fertilizer is an irreplaceable basic fertilizer for agricultural planting. The application of potassium fertilizer can promote the photosynthesis of crops, promote crop results and improve the cold resistance and disease resistance of crops, so as to improve agricultural output. The main varieties of potassium fertilizer include potassium chloride, potassium sulfate, potassium dihydrogen phosphate, potassium nitrate, etc. The distribution of potash resources in the world is relatively concentrated. According to the data released by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in 2022, the recoverable reserves of Potash (K2O) in the world are more than 3.7 billion tons by 2020, of which the reserves of Canada, Russia and Belarus are 1.1/7.5/6 billion tons respectively. China's potash reserves are 350 million tons, accounting for 9% of the world's potash reserves. Although China ranks fourth in the world in potash, its per capita reserves are scarce, and China is a large agricultural country, with high demand for potash fertilizer, a long-term gap in potash and high import dependence. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, China's import of potassium chloride from 2017 to 2020 was 753 / 746 / 908 / 8.73 million tons. In the case of limited potash reserves, import is the main direction to make up for China's gap, which also means that the market prospect of seawater potassium extraction business is broad.
The landscape of the planting industry chain is high, and the demand for potash fertilizer is good
In the 14th Five-Year plan, the state raised grain security to a strategic height. This year's No. 1 central document also emphasized the issue of food security again, and planted the industrial chain to be better. Superimposed on the recent intensification of geopolitical conflicts, on the one hand, it has affected food exports, on the other hand, it has also exacerbated the world's concerns about food supply. Food prices continue to rise, and countries' demand for food reserves is also rising. The rise in grain prices has driven the enthusiasm to grow grain, and the demand for potash fertilizer continues to improve. According to wind data, as of March 28, 2022, the spot price of potash fertilizer in China was 492000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 125.69% and an increase of 29.13% during the year. The demand for potash fertilizer continues to improve. At the same time, the implementation of 200000 tons of seawater potassium extraction business promoted by the company in cooperation with Hebei University of technology and Professor Yuan Junsheng's team, coupled with the continuous prosperity of the planting industry chain, driven by many factors, the company is expected to achieve a simultaneous increase in volume and price in the potassium chloride business and further thicken the profit space.
Investment advice
Considering that the industrial production of the company's seawater extraction potassium chloride business is accelerating, and the completion and operation of the factory and the listing of products will increase the company's revenue and profit, we maintain the company's revenue forecast of 16.279/17.908 billion yuan in 21-22 years, maintain the parent net profit forecast of -14.18/871 million yuan, and increase the company's revenue in 2023 to 20.85 billion yuan (the previous value was 19.7 billion yuan), The net profit attributable to the parent company was raised to RMB 1.574 billion (the previous value was RMB 934 million). To sum up, we expect that from 2021 to 2023, the company's EPS will be -0.38/0.23/0.42 yuan respectively, corresponding to the closing price of 3.43 yuan / share on March 29, 2022, and PE will be -8.99/14.63/8.09x respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating of the company.
Risk tips
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuation risk, policy disturbance risk, and the risk that the industrialization process of potash fertilizer production is less than expected
