\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 426 Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) )
Event: Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) released the annual report of 2021. During the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue of 26.636 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 103.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.254 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 303.37%. Among them, 2021q4 company achieved a revenue of 8.401 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 106.32% and a month on month increase of + 26.86%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.642 billion yuan, up + 223.4% year-on-year and – 9.3% month on month. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 0.80 per share (including tax) to all shareholders. The company released the performance forecast of 22q1. During the reporting period, it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.25 ~ 2.45 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 43 ~ 55% and a month on month increase of + 37 ~ 49%.
The performance of 21fy and 22q1 of the company met expectations, and the repair of product price difference helped to increase the performance month on month in the first quarter. According to the announcement, from the perspective of production and marketing, the sales volume of 21q4 fertilizer sector was + 9% month on month, the production and marketing of organic amine and acetic acid sector was flat month on month, and the product price difference was compressed by high coal prices. Finally, 21q4 company realized a gross profit of 2.229 billion yuan (year-on-year + 166%, month on month – 8%), and the expense rate (three fees) was 3.2% (year-on-year – 1.8pct), which continued to maintain a low level. Our market tracking data shows that since 22q1, the price boom of the company’s main products has remained high, and the price difference has differentiated with the decline of bituminous coal price. In terms of sectors, the price difference of organic amine, adipic acid and intermediate products has performed well, while the price difference of DMF and adipic acid has increased by + 66%, + 75% year-on-year, and + 8%, + 24% month on month. The high boom of organic amine sector has made a great contribution to the performance; Acetic acid and its derivatives weakened, and the price difference of Q1 acetic acid was – 30% month on month; Fertilizer and polyol sector Q1 has been repaired, and the price difference of urea and butyl octanol is + 18% and + 1% month on month. Generally, the repair of price difference is the main reason for the month on month growth of performance in the first quarter. In terms of production and marketing, with the launch of new capacity of caprolactam and DMC, the company accurately grasped the rapid growth of electrolyte demand in the lithium battery industry, gave full play to the advantages of low cost and flexible cogeneration, and achieved considerable performance increment. Although the price difference has narrowed recently, the boom continues (see the following for detailed data chart).
New projects continue to be promoted, and the growth momentum can be expected. According to the announcement and the company’s official website, the cash paid by 21q4 company for the purchase and construction of fixed assets, intangible assets and other long-term assets was 1.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 43%; In the construction in progress, the foundation of the Jingzhou base project of Q4 company was officially laid. The progress of the gas power platform and synthetic gas comprehensive utilization project in Jingzhou park with a total investment of 11.5 billion is expected to be ~ 10%, and the progress of the amide and nylon new material project in the department is expected to be 90%. In terms of new projects, according to the EIA publicity of Jingzhou Ecological Environment Bureau, the company plans to build a new green new energy material project in Jiangling coal power port chemical industrial park, with an annual output of 200000 tons of BDO, 30000 tons of PBAT and 100000 tons of NMP; According to the company’s official website, recently, the high-end solvent project (annual output of 300000 tons of DMC, 300000 tons of EMC, by-product of 50000 tons of DEC), nylon 66 high-end new material project (annual output of 80000 tons of nylon 66, 148000 tons of adipic acid) and 300000 tons of dicarboxylic acid project in Dezhou headquarters have successively carried out EIA publicity, with a total estimated investment of ~ 5.1 billion yuan. In the medium and long term, the characteristics of the high fit between the Yangtze River economic belt and coal chemical products provide Jingzhou base with a huge market space, which can form a radiation area complementary with Dezhou base. With the continuous promotion of the “going global” + “high-end” strategy, the company is expected to start the second growth curve.
Investment suggestion: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 7.36 billion yuan, 8.05 billion yuan and 8.98 billion yuan respectively, maintaining the Buy-A investment rating.
Prompt: the price of the project is lower than the expected progress, and the risk of the product is large
