Electrical equipment 10379 fell 4.05%, weaker than the market. This week (from March 21 to March 25, the same below), industrial control automation rose 0%, nuclear power fell 1.71%, lithium battery fell 2.1%, new energy vehicles fell 3.38%, power generation and power grid fell 3.42%, wind power fell 5.74%, photovoltaic fell 6.4% and power generation equipment fell 6.77%. The top five gainers are Lu Yitong, Changshu Fengfan Power Equipment Co.Ltd(601700) , Xiangtan Electrochemical Scientific Co.Ltd(002125) , Ruikang shares, Shanghai Cooltech Power Co.Ltd(300153) ; The top five declines were Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Taihai Manoir Nuclear Equipment Co.Ltd(002366) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Northeast Electric Development Company Limited(000585) .
Industry level: electric vehicles: Tesla Berlin factory was put into operation and the first batch of modely was delivered; Tesla may develop manganese based cathode battery to deal with the obstruction of raw material supply; In 2021, Weilai’s revenue was 36.14 billion yuan, and its net loss narrowed to 4.02 billion yuan. 250 Lingyi Itech (Guangdong) Company(002600) 0 vehicles are expected to be delivered in Q1. Three new models will be launched in 22 years. In 2022, Weilai will launch three new models: et7, et5 and ES7; In 2022, Geely will launch 13 new energy vehicles, and the performance version of krypton 001 will be launched; Since April 1, the ideal one price has increased by 11800 yuan; Wuling Hongguang miniev increased its price by 4000; National Development and Reform Commission: issue the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (21-35 years), and establish a complementary development model between hydrogen fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles; China Automobile Association: the price rise of raw materials has been brought into the monitoring vision, and we will resolutely crack down on unfair competition Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) launched the third generation CTP battery. Under the same material and volume, the capacity can be increased by 13% compared with 4680; Stellantis group and LG will build a battery plant in Canada with an investment of more than 25.3 billion yuan. The first phase 45gwh and 24q1 will be put into operation; SAIC joined hands with Qingshan to land 20gwh power battery base; LFP replacement battery pack of iron tower breaks through 1.24 yuan / wh; The price of metal cobalt is 569000 yuan / ton, which is – 0.4% (month on month, the same below), nickel is 264500 yuan / ton, which is + 18.7%, manganese is 22600 yuan / ton, which is the same this week, metal lithium is 3130000 yuan / ton, which is + 1.6%, battery grade lithium carbonate is 517500 yuan / ton, which is the same this week, lithium hydroxide is 493900 yuan / ton, which is the same this week, electrolyte is 110000 yuan / ton, which is – 4.3%, lithium hexafluorophosphate is 505000 yuan / ton, which is – 3.8%, The price of Sanyuan 523 precursor is 162000 yuan / ton, this week + 3.2%, cobalt sulfate precursor is 119500 yuan / ton, this week + 4.4%, Sanyuan 622 cathode is 388000 yuan / ton, this week + 0.8%, Sanyuan 811 cathode is 416500 yuan / ton, this week + 1.2%, low-end natural graphite cathode is 32500 yuan / ton, this week + 35.4%, square ternary battery pack is 0.93 yuan / wh, this week + 1.1%, square iron lithium battery pack is 0.84 yuan / wh, this week + 7.0%. New energy: on March 22, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the “14th five year plan” for modern energy system; In the first two months of 2022, the cumulative export value of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries in China was US $10.56 billion; The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated a review of the situation change of crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells in China; Monocrystalline silicon material this week was 249 yuan / kg, unchanged month on month; The quotation of 166 / 182 / 210mm monocrystalline silicon wafer is 5.5/6.65/8.87 yuan / wafer, which is flat month on month; The quotation of single crystal perc166 battery is 1.11 yuan / W, unchanged month on month; The quotation of single crystal perc components was 1.84 yuan / W, unchanged month on month; Glass 3.2mm/2.0mm, quotation 26 / 20 yuan / flat. Industrial Control & Power Grid: China Southern Power Grid’s “14th five year plan” digital plan was released, with an estimated investment of 26 billion yuan; The Southern Energy Regulatory Bureau issued the “implementation rules for the management of grid connected power operation in the southern region” and the “implementation rules for the management of auxiliary power services in the southern region” (Draft for comments)..
Company level: Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) : in 2021, the main business income was 11.091 billion, an increase of 169.26% and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.208 billion, an increase of 314.42% Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) : it is proposed to grant 6.37 million options and 1068300 restricted shares to senior executives and core backbones. The exercise requirements are: the net profit from 2022 to 2024 shall not be less than 2.6/4/5.4 billion In the same year, the revenue increased by 3.6 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.684 billion, an increase of 15.18% at the same time Anhui Estone Materials Technology Co.Ltd(688733) : the operating revenue in 2021 was 423 million yuan, an increase of 119.85% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 108 million yuan, an increase of 139.98% at the same time Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) : reach a strategic cooperation agreement with Volkswagen (China) and Aoyama holdings, including: 1) establish a joint venture in Indonesia to build a nickel cobalt raw material supply base for 160gwh battery; 2) Establish one or more joint ventures with Volkswagen in Guangxi and other places to engage in cathode integrated manufacturing Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) : signed a polysilicon material purchase agreement with Tongwei, agreeing to purchase 203600 tons of polysilicon material from January 2022 to December 2023 Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) : the revenue will reach 8.713 billion in 2021, an increase of 39.18% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.12 billion, an increase of 30.15% at the same time Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) : shareholders xingyin capital and Xingjing investment plan to reduce their holdings of no more than 30 million shares and 40.43 million shares respectively within 6 months, accounting for 1.42% and 1.91% Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) : the actual controllers, Mr. Wang Junshi and Ms. Lin Yibei, plan to reduce their holdings of no more than 14773700 shares within six months, accounting for 5.97% of the total share capital Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) : the revenue will reach 7.799 billion in 2021, an increase of 85.29% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.26 billion, an increase of 2490.8% at the same time Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) : zhengtai’an energy, a holding subsidiary, signed a roof distributed photovoltaic development agreement with many local governments, with a total installed capacity of 1623mw.
Investment strategy: the market is worried about the second round of price increase of electric vehicles and the impact of the epidemic, and there is a slight correction in the electric vehicle sector. In fact, car enterprises have been placing orders for 1-3 months, and new models have been intensively listed since Q2. Car enterprises generally pay attention to sales. After the price rise, there are many new promotion methods. Orders only fluctuate normally, and the actual delivery increases on schedule. The short-term local epidemic slightly affects the terminal delivery. We expect that the production will not be affected within 5-8%, The production schedule of lithium battery continued to improve in March and April, but the delivery was delayed. We estimated that there would still be about 450000 in March, and the sales volume of Q1 would exceed 1.2 million +. We believe that there is no suspense about 6 million vehicles in 2022 + (with an increase of 70%) and 10 million vehicles in the world + (with an increase of 60%). 25 years ago, the average value of lithium battery continued to increase. At present, the market expectation and valuation are obviously low, and we are strongly optimistic about the oversold reversal of electric vehicle sector, pushing the leader of all links of lithium battery. The EU’s medium-term photovoltaic demand is more optimistic, and it is expected to exceed the market expectation in 2022. The global photovoltaic installed capacity in 2022 is 240250gw, an increase of nearly 50%, of which China expects about 90gw, an increase of 65% + at the same time. From the micro point of view, the module production was reduced slightly in March to cope with the cost pressure and the downstream price increase. The overall demand of Q2 is strong, and it continues to be optimistic about the modules, inverters and high-quality leaders.
The domestic substitution of industrial control continued, and the boom began to pick up in December of the 21st year. The growth of leading orders from January to February exceeded market expectations, focusing on the leading Huichuan. After the rush installation of wind power, the cost has decreased significantly, and has been parity. It has resumed growth in 22 years and sea breeze has resumed growth in 23 years. Pay attention to new export opportunities after parity. We expect that the investment in power grid will increase steadily, and the new power system will bring structural opportunities, focusing on grid construction, intelligent distribution network, digitization and other directions.
Key recommended targets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (the global leader of power battery has greatly exceeded market expectations, high-quality customers, leading technology and cost advantages), Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (the power lithium battery has gradually become the leader and electronic cigarette provides support), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (the global leader of wet diaphragm with strong profitability), Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (high nickel positive lead and high increase period of capacity release) Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) (Electrolyte & hexafluoride faucet, leading new lithium salt), Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (gradual recovery of general automation demand and comprehensive breakthrough of powertrain), Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (global leader of monocrystalline silicon wafer and components, strong comprehensive strength), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (global leader of negative electrode and diaphragm coating leader), Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) (global leader of structural parts, high-quality customers and high-volume and increasing availability period) Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (the expectation of iron and lithium demand supermarket and the turning point of profit), Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) (the leader of carbon nanotube conductive agent, entering the upper volume stage), Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) (the leader of 210 components and the outbreak of household system), Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (the global leader of inverter and the forward-looking layout of energy storage), Byd Company Limited(002594) (the sales of electric vehicles continue to exceed the market expectation and the external supply of blade batteries accelerates), Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) (the leader of series inverter, with high performance growth) Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (integrated component leader, predictable profit elasticity in 2022), Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) (high growth of distributed inverter and power of energy storage business), Hemai Co., Ltd. (the shipment of micro reverse leader is expected to double continuously, and the American market begins to increase in volume), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (cobalt salt leader and positive polar precursor leader), Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) (global leader of ternary precursor, high-quality and rapid production expansion of customers) Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) \ \, Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , No. 9 company, China Leadshine Technology Co.Ltd(002979) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) . It is suggested to pay attention to: Jingke energy, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , beiteri, Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , etc.
Risk tip: the investment growth rate is declining, the policy is lower than the market expectation, and the price competition is higher than the market expectation
