Last week’s market:
The social services (Shenwan) sector index rose or fell by – 2.60% in the week, ranking 23 / 31 in the rise and fall of Shenwan industry.
Shanghai Stock Index (- 1.19%), Shenzhen Component Index (- 2.08%), Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (- 2.14%) and gem index (- 2.80%).
Ranking of sub industries: SW hotel catering (- 0.84%), SW sports II (- 0.87%), SW tourism and scenic spots (- 1.69%), SW professional services (- 1.78%), SW Education (- 3.44%).
Top five gainers in social service industry: Dalian Sunasia Tourism Holding Co.Ltd(600593) (+ 9.48%), Beijing Fengshangshiji Culture Media Co.Ltd(300860) (+ 8.17%), Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) (+ 6.72%), Huatian Hotel Group Co.Ltd(000428) (+ 5.96%), Dalian My Gym Education Technology Co.Ltd(002621) (+ 5.08%);
The top five declines in social service industry: Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) (- 12.61%), China Building Material Test & Certification Group Co.Ltd(603060) (- 10.81%), Shanghai Xinnanyang Only Education & Technology Co.Ltd(600661) (- 10.05%), real estate testing (- 8.73%), Beijing Dataway Horizon Co.Ltd(301169) (- 8.41%).
Core view:
The press conference of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council informed that the epidemic situation in Qingdao, Weihai and Zibo of Shandong Province, Shenzhen and Dongguan of Guangdong Province has been preliminarily controlled; The epidemic situation in Beijing, Chongqing and Zhejiang Province tends to be stable.
Shanghai epidemic: on March 25, Shanghai held the 133rd press conference on epidemic prevention and control. The key contents of the current epidemic progress in Shanghai are as follows: ① from the existing data, the exponential upward trend of new local covid-19 pneumonia positive infections is being interrupted. ② Zhang Wenhong said that through the discovery of all cases, non controlled areas account for 10% of all cases. If this proportion continues to decline, the final inflection point is bound to appear. ③ Zhang Wenhong said that when the nucleic acid detection is in place, we can control the R0 value below 1.
At present, the national epidemic prevention and control is still facing a severe and complex situation and is in the most difficult and critical stage. With the accelerated research and development of specific drugs and the steady progress of covid-19 vaccine vaccination, under the guidance of the general strategy of “external prevention input and internal prevention rebound” and the general policy of “dynamic clearing”, the epidemic situation is expected to be further controlled and activate the market vitality of the offline travel industry.
Investment suggestion: under the epidemic situation, offline consumption has suffered a heavy blow, the industry has undergone a structural reshuffle, and a number of policies are favorable to fundamentally help enterprises solve their difficulties. Small and medium-sized enterprises on the supply side are cleared. With the stability of epidemic prevention and control, the pent up travel demand is expected to be imminent, which is good for the leading enterprises of the subdivided track.
Risk warning: global epidemic control; Regulation of national policies; Industry regulatory risks; The downward pressure on the economy has increased.
