Market performance:
In the current period (2022.3.212022.3.25), the non bank (Shenwan) index was – 2.95%, ranking 25 / 31 in the industry, the brokerage II index was – 4.04%, and the insurance II index was – 1.09%; Shanghai Composite Index – 1.19%, Shenzhen Component Index – 2.08%, gem index – 2.80%.
The top five stocks in terms of rise and fall: Zhuhai Huajin Capital Co.Ltd(000532) (+ 9.80%), Sunny Loan Top Co.Ltd(600830) (+ 6.13%), Zhejiang Orient Financial Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600120) (+ 5.03%), Panda Financial Holding Corp.Ltd(600599) (+ 3.67%), Avic Industry-Finance Holdings Co.Ltd(600705) (+ 2.80%); The top five stocks in terms of rise and fall: Shanghai Greencourt Investment Group Co.Ltd(600695) (- 14.68%), Easy Visible Supply Chain Management Co.Ltd(600093) (- 13.75%), Polaris Bay Group Co.Ltd(600155) (- 12.18%), Guosheng Financial Holding Inc(002670) (- 10.91%), Xishui Strong Year Co.Ltd Inner Mongolia(600291) (- 9.47%).
Core view
Securities companies: this week, the securities companies sector pulled back again, with a cumulative decline of 4.04%. Only Hongta Securities Co.Ltd(601236) rose in individual stocks. Most securities companies were subject to the net outflow of main funds of a shares, of which the net outflow of China stock market news was 1.925 billion yuan, far exceeding that of other securities companies, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (- 397 million yuan), Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) (- 271 million yuan) and other securities companies also ranked among the top in net outflow. However, we noticed that compared with the previous two weeks, the market stabilized and the earthquake amplitude narrowed, and the wealth management market showed signs of recovery.
In terms of public funds, taking the fund establishment date as the statistical caliber, as of March 25, there were 141 newly established funds in March, with a total issued share of 92.995 billion, an increase of 123.81% and 175.41% over the whole month of the previous month.
From the perspective of the types of public funds, the scale of equity and bond funds rebounded in March compared with February. A total of 93 newly established equity funds (including equity funds and hybrid funds) issued 35.925 billion shares, an increase of 86.00% and 73.18% over the whole month of February. There were 30 bond funds, with a total issued share of 51.818 billion, an increase of 200.00% and 345.33% over the whole month of February. In terms of the proportion of the market scale of newly issued funds, the proportion of bond funds has exceeded half for the first time since 2022, and the market share has reached 55.72%, an increase of 21.26pct over the previous month. On the other hand, the equity funds newly issued in March accounted for only 38.63% of the total issued shares of public funds, a decrease of 22.80pct compared with the previous month. It can be seen that the negative sentiment in the market has improved to a certain extent, and the issuance of public funds has begun to pick up, but the issuance of equity funds is still greatly impacted. Compared with the whole month of February last year, the number and share of issuance have decreased by 13.89% and 86.21% respectively, and the market share has decreased by 49.18pct. It will take some time for the public fund market to fully pick up.
On the other hand, on March 24, the China Foundation Association released the monthly report on the filing of private asset management products of securities and futures operating institutions. As of the end of February, the average scale of private asset management business managed by securities companies and their asset management companies was 83.2 billion yuan, a month on month increase of 1.71% and a year-on-year increase of 4.26%; The private equity subsidiaries of securities companies managed an average of 7.5 billion yuan of private equity funds, an increase of 0% month on month and 1.35% year-on-year. The overall scale of private equity funds of securities companies is relatively stable. At present, the asset management business of securities companies is still seeking the road of transformation, the number of securities private equity fund managers has increased significantly, and the Matthew effect of private equity will gradually appear in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to the long-term asset management growth ability of securities companies with strong comprehensive strength of institutional raising, investment and withdrawal.
Under the background of the overall shock correction of the market and the high homogeneity of asset management products of securities companies, on the one hand, securities companies with more high net worth customer resources have higher profitability. On the other hand, the wealth management platform is well built, and retail customers can reach the advantages of more convenient securities companies with customer base. At present, the valuation adjustment of wealth management targets has been basically in a historical position, and they are optimistic about low wealth management advantage securities companies for a long time, such as China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , etc.
Insurance: the insurance sector fell by 1.09% this week, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen Yantai Longyuan Power Technology Co.Ltd(300105) PCT, outperforming Shanghai Composite Index by 0.11 PCT, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) , New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) , China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 601 and China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) by – 0.63%, – 1.33%, – 1.78%, – 1.95% and – 4.38% respectively, showing a sluggish performance this week.
On March 25, the spokesman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission mentioned in answering reporters’ questions that since 2021, the pilot of exclusive commercial pension insurance and pension financial products have been launched one after another. By the end of February 2022, the pilot company had underwritten 71800 insurance policies, with a total premium of 472 million yuan, including more than 12000 employees of Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) , new business types. The pilot of pension savings is about to start.
Exclusive commercial endowment insurance is an important part of China’s third pillar endowment insurance system. At present, China’s population aging trend is obvious, and the population structure is constantly changing (the results of China’s seventh census in 2021 showed that the population aged 60 and over reached 264 million, accounting for 18.7%, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.44%) Chronic diseases and disability and dementia of the elderly occur frequently. Improving the three pillar old-age insurance system can deal with these social problems to a certain extent.
Exclusive commercial endowment insurance products can enhance the diversification of the product structure of insurance companies, provide new sources of premium and handling fee income, improve the design, investment decision-making and duration management of long-term and guaranteed products, which is consistent with the “insurance surname insurance” of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, and help guide insurance companies to adhere to long-term ism, taking into account personal security, risk aversion, investment and financial management, It is conducive to the growth of the embedded value of insurance companies and the development of the market. The CBRC will reflect regulatory support in the minimum capital requirement of solvency.
At the meeting, it was also mentioned that the CIRC will give full play to the advantages of long-term investment of insurance funds, guide insurance institutions to allocate more funds to equity assets, further enrich investment channels, make arrangements for the transition period of solvency supervision rules (II), encourage greater issuance of portfolio insurance asset management products, and establish and improve the long-term assessment mechanism of insurance funds. Last year, under the dual influence of real estate risk events and the decline of China’s interest rate, the performance of the investment side of insurance enterprises was under pressure. Under the guidance of supervision, the additional allocation of equity assets helped to repair the elasticity of the investment side of insurance companies and outperform the return hypothesis.
Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) and The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) successively published the annual report of 2021.
In terms of investment income, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) total investment income rate / net investment income rate was 4.98% / 4.38%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.32% / + 0.04%. Thanks to the optimization and adjustment of asset allocation, the performance was stable Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) total return on investment / net return on investment was 4.0% / 4.6%, with a year-on-year rate of – 2.2% / – 0.5%. Affected by China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) provision and other factors, the performance was lower than expected, and it was expected to improve after the risk was cleared The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) total return on investment / net return on investment was 5.8% / 4.8%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0 / – 0.2%.
The matching of assets and liabilities was reasonable, and the allocation of large categories of assets was optimized, and the performance was basically the same as that of last year.
In terms of premium income, the original premium income of China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , Ping An Life Insurance and PICC Life Insurance was 241.2 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan and 53.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 5%, – 1.6% and + 26.4%; the original premium income of Ping An Property Insurance and PICC Property Insurance were 47.5 billion yuan and 91.8 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 11% and + 13.6%. The products have been replaced and the agent team is clear. The obstacle of the epidemic makes the original premium income of life insurance from January to February lower than expected, and the auto insurance and non auto insurance have increased, The structure is further optimized and the overall performance is better than that of life insurance. However, due to the comprehensive reform of automobile insurance in 2021, the base number in the same period is low. Behind the year-on-year growth, we should continue to pay attention to the product types and business details of head insurance companies.
On the insurance asset side, the gradual clearing of real estate risks and the possible rise of the yield of ten-year Treasury bonds are expected to form support, but we need to wait for attention. The overall pressure state on the liability side has not fundamentally changed. However, due to the difficult reversal of the real estate market in the short term, the equity market is greatly affected by the change of mood and style, and the direction of residents’ wealth allocation has slowly changed, The comparative advantages of annuity insurance and increased life insurance products may be highlighted, which is expected to become a positive factor in the repair of the liability side of the insurance industry.
On the whole, both ends of the negative equity of the insurance sector are improving, and the valuation is at a low level, but the bottom building stage is not over yet. The inflection point needs to wait. It is suggested to pay attention to the structural market.
Risk tips: major changes in industry rules, increased external market risks, market fluctuations and repeated epidemics
