Industry trend: the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.19%, the gem index fell 2.80%, and the environmental protection and public utilities index fell 3.08%. Among the environmental protection sectors, the environmental monitoring sector fell 2.68%, and the garden sector fell 2.82%; Among the public sector, thermal power sector fell 4.81% and clean energy power generation sector fell 11.04%.
Key points of this week:
1) viewpoint of public utilities: the 14th five year plan for modern energy system was issued to actively promote the transformation of energy structure: the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the 14th five year plan for modern energy system. The plan points out that by 2025, the total installed capacity of power generation will reach about 3 billion kw, and the proportion of non fossil energy power generation will reach about 39%. As the main development direction, wind power photovoltaic will comprehensively promote the large-scale development of wind power and photovoltaic during the 14th Five Year Plan period. At the same time, we will fully tap the potential of power peak regulation, fully implement the flexible transformation of coal-fired power units, and strive to exceed 200 million KW by 2025, with an installed capacity of pumping and storage of more than 62gw. In terms of nuclear power, it is required that the operating installed capacity will reach about 70gw by 2025, transmitting a positive signal of accelerating the orderly development of nuclear power. In addition, the plan proposes to continuously enhance the supply of natural gas sources, requiring that the annual output of natural gas will reach 230 billion cubic meters by 2025, and there is still room for growth during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Formulate short-term development plans for new energy in many places: the Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued the notice on Issuing the plan of key construction projects in Guangdong Province in 2022. The notice announced the schedule of key construction projects in Guangdong Province in 2022, including 38 wind power projects with a total scale of 35.24 million KW; The development and Reform Commission of Liaoning Province issued a request for the construction plan of photovoltaic power generation demonstration project in Liaoning Province in 2022 (Draft for comments). According to the draft, in order to make economical and efficient use of land resources, deeply tap the value of land, reduce the occupation of cultivated land, explore a new model of integrated development of photovoltaic power generation projects and industries, and promote the development and construction of photovoltaic demonstration projects in desert, water surface and beach areas. Under the background of uncertain international situation and steady growth, it is suggested to focus on the public utility sector with defensive attributes. The public sector mainly recommends nuclear power + new energy dual wheel drive, and both business sectors have the space for both volume and price to rise [ China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ] and [ Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) ] for asset injection to build the whole natural gas industry chain and actively layout comprehensive energy. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the high number of projects under construction. Offshore wind power projects under construction account for a large proportion in 2021, and the target [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ] [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ] [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ], which has both short-term performance growth and certainty, and [ Yunnan Energy Investment Co.Ltd(002053) ], which has the advantage of wind resources and is expected to increase significantly in the installed capacity of new energy.
2) viewpoint of environmental protection:
Establish a relatively complete system of ecological protection supervision policies, regulations and standards: the Ministry of ecology and environment issued a notice on printing and distributing the “14th five year plan” for ecological protection supervision, proposing to establish a relatively complete system of ecological protection supervision policies, regulations and standards, preliminarily establish a national ecological monitoring, supervision and evaluation network, and carry out normalized remote sensing monitoring in key areas by 2025, The supervision and assessment system for ecological protection and restoration was further improved, the regulatory capacity of nature reserves, ecological protection red line and the level of biodiversity protection were further improved, the scope of special actions to strengthen supervision of “Green Shield” nature reserves was fully covered, and unreasonable development activities of nature reserves were basically curbed. The environmental protection sector suggests to pay attention to the main waste incineration power generation, enter the [ Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) ] of new energy lithium battery recycling, open the performance growth space, and actively transform and layout the target [ Road Environment Technology Co.Ltd(688156) ] of distiller’s grains resource utilization based on the disposal of high water content waste.
Market tracking information:
1) carbon market tracking: this week, the total turnover of the national carbon market carbon emission quota (CEA) was 81830 tons, with a total turnover of 4.7474 million yuan. The weekly trading volume of listing agreement trading is 81830 tons, the weekly trading volume is 4.7474 million yuan, the highest trading price is 59.00 yuan / ton, the lowest trading price is 58.00 yuan / ton, and the closing price on Friday is 58.00 yuan / ton, which is the same as last Friday. There is no block deal this week. As of this week, the cumulative trading volume of the national carbon market carbon emission quota (CEA) was 188961400 tons, with a cumulative turnover of 8.204 billion yuan. This week, the trading volume of carbon emission rights in Hubei was the highest, 67700 tons, while there was no trading volume in Shenzhen and Tianjin this week. In terms of the average transaction price of carbon emissions, the highest average transaction price is 76.52 yuan / ton in Guangdong market and the lowest is 15.00 yuan / ton in Fujian market.
2) natural gas price tracking: China’s LNG price rose slightly. According to the data released by Zhuo Chuang information, the weekly average transaction price of national LNG ex factory this week was 796151 yuan / ton, up 74.66 yuan / ton month on month, or 0.95%; Among them, the weekly average ex factory price of the terminal was 876090 yuan / ton, up 44.02 yuan / ton month on month, or 0.51%; The average weekly ex factory price of the factory was 738465 yuan / ton, up 112.94 yuan / ton, or 1.55%.
3) coal market price tracking: the price of origin rose slightly this week: according to the data released by the coal resources network, the cci5500 comprehensive price index this week was 792 yuan / ton, unchanged month on week. From the point of origin, Yulin 5800 kcal index was 1050 yuan, up 70 yuan on a weekly basis 6 Hitevision Co.Ltd(002955) 500 kcal index was 945 yuan, up 17 yuan on a weekly basis; Datong 5500 kcal index was 1090 yuan, up 65 yuan on a weekly basis. With the increasing demand and the dual role of the external environment, the coal price at the pit mouth shows an upward trend.
Portfolio
\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 985 + China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) + Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) + Road Environment Technology Co.Ltd(688156) + Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) + Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803)
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the project operation progress is less than expected, the power coal price rises, the water supply of hydropower is less than expected, and the electricity price is at risk of reduction.
