Key investment points
Market last week: light industry manufacturing sector index fell. From March 21, 2022 to March 25, 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.08%, and the light industry manufacturing index fell 1.52%, ranking 17th among the 28 Shenwan industries; The rise and fall of light industry manufacturing index sub sectors from high to low are packaging and printing (- 0.67%), household light industry (- 2.12%) and papermaking (- 2.06%).
Furniture: the first is [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ], which continues to pay attention to the continuous differentiation between the head brand and the industry. In terms of domestic sales of furniture, the performance of 2022m1-2 real estate was weak, and the sales / completion data decreased by 9.6% / 9.8% year-on-year. The weak performance of real estate suppressed the valuation of furniture sector. However, we emphasize that 1) the proportion of home demand released by stock houses and old transformation continues to increase, and the correlation between home industry demand and new house sales has decreased; 2) The differentiation between leading enterprises and industries continues to intensify, and the concentration degree is improved due to the evolution of leading retail capacity under the changing flow structure. In the short term, the current epidemic may have a certain impact on the sales performance of the furniture industry in March 2022, but the demand for furniture renewal and upgrading caused by lagging demand and home isolation is expected to be fully released from April to may 2022, with a relatively limited impact on the annual performance. In the follow-up, we believe that under the stable growth, the marginal easing of real estate policy is expected to increase, and the leading enterprises are expected to continuously improve their market share with their own alpha, so there is more room for valuation repair. Continue to recommend [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ] management improvement and retail under the whole strategy is expected to accelerate; At the same time, it is recommended to be the pioneer of retail reform, [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ], the increasingly clear route of large home furnishing, [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ], the consolidation of the leading position of overall high growth, [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ], the smooth expansion of independent brands and [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] and the functional sofa leading [Minhua holding] with low valuation. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ], [ Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ]. In terms of export sales, on March 24, 2022, the USTR of the United States announced the resumption of tariff exemption for 352 imported goods from China. The economic and trade relations between China and the United States may be improved. It is recommended that the dilemma can be reversed. Under the anti-dumping [ Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) ], the scarcity of American production capacity layout is gradually realized. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) ], which drives the high increase of income and has strong bargaining power.
E-cigarette: China and the United States accelerate the standardization of e-cigarette industry and are optimistic about the healthy development of China's e-cigarette manufacturing industry; The United States may legalize the Federation of marijuana to promote the development of CBD industry. 1) On March 25, 2022, FDA announced that it authorized the launch of eight products of logic, a Japanese tobacco e-cigarette brand. All logic products that passed PMTA this time are tobacco flavor, and menthol flavor remains to be approved; 2) On March 20, 2022, Shenzhen Bao'an District government issued several measures of Bao'an District on promoting the high-quality development of advanced manufacturing industry and modern service industry, proposing to reward enterprises in characteristic and advantageous industries such as new electronic atomization equipment; 3) The US House of representatives will hold a hearing on the federal legalization of marijuana next Monday (March 28, 2022). The United States may become the third country to legalize marijuana after Uruguay and Canada. The CBD industry is expected to develop rapidly with the legalization of marijuana at the federal level. China and the United States will continue to promote the healthy development of China's and China's electronic manufacturing industry and accelerate the long-term development of China's and China's electronic manufacturing industry; It is suggested that we should pay close attention to the close cooperation with China tobacco, and distribute the flavors and fragrances and evaluate the Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) with high price performance ratio. Enterprises with thick slurry flake production technology [ Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) ].
Papermaking: the first is [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ], the price of outer pulp continues to rise, the price of cultural paper rises, and the profitability of head paper enterprises is gradually restored. In terms of price, as of March 25, 2022, the price of wood pulp was 7017.9 yuan / ton, up 153 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, The price of carton board paper was 4833 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of corrugated paper was 3771.9 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3 yuan / ton; The price of white cardboard is 6385 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 5 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; The price of whiteboard paper was 5080 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; The price of double copper paper was 5680 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of double offset paper was 6225 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. Arauco, Chile, announced that the pulp price increased in April 2022: Silver Star of coniferous pulp increased by US $100 / ton to US $990 / ton, and broad-leaved pulp star increased by US $105 / ton to US $805 / ton. The high cost of pulp promotes the rise of cultural paper, the impact of double reduction and the new capacity in 2021q4 is gradually digested, and the profitability of cultural paper is expected to hit the bottom. It is recommended that [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ]: the valuation has a margin of safety, the forest area of Laos base continues to grow, and the cost advantage and risk resistance are improved under the integration of forest, pulp and paper.
Risk tip: power rationing policy affects production capacity, raw material price fluctuations, intensified Sino US trade frictions, weak downstream demand, etc.
