Core recommendation
Key points of basic chemical industry
Core assets ( Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) ); The titanium dioxide ( Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 002is the date of the 3535 \ ) etc.
Key points of petrochemical industry
OPEC + joint production reduction forms the bottom support of oil price, but we still need to pay attention to the impact of non OPEC production (Canadian heavy oil, Brazil and Central Asia), global macroeconomic downside risk and further fermentation of trade risk on oil price. It is recommended to accelerate the integrated construction of polyester industrial chain and enter into large-scale refining and excellent private refining enterprises with C2 / C3 light hydrocarbon cracking ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , satellite chemistry, Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ); Pay attention to Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Weekly industry update
This week, the price index of chemical products rose, the oil price of core raw materials rose, LPG gas rose, LNG gas remained flat and coal price rose; The prices of C1, C4, C5, phosphorus chemical and polyurethane products increased. This week, China’s chemical price index CCPI + 3.1%; The price of core raw materials is oil distribution + 10.3%, imported LPG + 8.7%, domestic LNG gas is the same, and bituminous coal + 5.6%. At the raw material end, the prices of C1, C4 and C5 products rose, while the prices of C2 and C3 products fell; On the product side, the prices of some products of phosphorus chemical industry and polyurethane increased.
Oil prices rose this week, the Russian Ukrainian negotiations were blocked again, the storm intensified, and there were concerns about the interruption of supply.
This week, the settlement price of oil distribution rose from 107.9 to 119.0 US dollars / barrel (up 10.3%), and the settlement price of American oil rose from 104.7 to 112.3 US dollars / barrel (up 7.3%); The US commercial crude oil inventory was 413 million barrels (Mom – 0.6%), and the number of US crude oil wells was 531 (mom + 1.3%).
On the supply side, according to Longzhong information, the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have been blocked again recently. At the same time, the European Union and NATO have discussed a new round of sanctions against Russia. In addition, the storm has led to the suspension of the Black Sea CPC pipeline and exacerbated concerns about supply interruption. Although the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue have come to an end, there has been no new progress in the near future. On the demand side, according to Longzhong information, the global epidemic is still severe recently, but there are no new control measures in overseas countries. In terms of policy, according to Longzhong information, the Fed has started the interest rate increase cycle, which is good for the dollar and bad for oil prices in the long term, but the pressure is not significant in the short term. Geopolitically, according to Longzhong information, the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are not as smooth as expected, and there is still a risk of sharp fluctuations in oil prices.
Natural gas price tracking:
Price tracking: European and American natural gas futures rose as a whole this week, with NBP + 16.11%, TTF + 14.03%, HH + 10.11% and AECO + 4.42%. In terms of spot, HH spot was – 15.06% month on month; Canada AECO spot chain was + 6.22%, and Europe TTF spot chain was + 12.30%. In terms of price difference, the average spot arrival price of LNG in Northeast Asia was 11027 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 4.30%, the average sales price at the terminal was 8265 yuan / ton, and the price difference was + 112 yuan / ton (+ 1.37%).
Inventory tracking: European and American natural gas inventories continued to decline this week. According to EIA data, as of March 18, the US natural gas inventory was 1389 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of – 51 billion cubic feet (month on month ratio of – 3.54%, year-on-year ratio of – 20.90%), lower than the five-year average. According to the data of the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, as of March 18, the European natural gas inventory was 970.36 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of – 22.6 billion cubic feet (month on month ratio of – 2.27%, year-on-year ratio of – 18.07%).
China price: China’s LNG rose slightly this week. As of March 24, the average price of LNG in main producing areas was 7344 yuan / ton, up + 2.93% from last week; Consumer prices rose simultaneously. As of March 24, the average price of major LNG consumers was about 8128 yuan / ton, up + 1.33% from last week. The quotation of LNG terminal is 8825 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 0.25%.
View update of key chemicals:
Price rise and fall of chemicals:
The important products with the highest price increase this week are liquid chlorine + 125%, acetic acid + 15%, o-nitrochlorobenzene + 14%, phosphorus trichloride + 10%, isooctanol + 8%, isobutene + 7%, ethyl acetate + 6%, butyl acetate + 6%, n-butanol + 6%. The important products with the highest price decline this week are dimethylcyclosiloxane (DMC) – 16%, enoxate-8%, butyl acrylate-7% and acrylic acid-7%.
Price rise and fall of upstream chemicals of new energy:
Chemicals related to photovoltaic industry chain: industrial silicon – 2%, trichlorosilane is the same, soda ash (light – 2%, heavy quality is the same), vinyl acetate + 3%, EVA (photovoltaic grade) is equal. Chemical products related to lithium battery industry chain: phosphate rock (30%) + 6%, phosphoric acid is the same, lithium carbonate (industrial grade is the same, battery grade is the same), iron phosphate is the same, industrial ammonium phosphate (73%) + 18%, lithium hexafluorophosphate is the same.
The price of overseas potash fertilizer continues to rise, the spot market is in short supply, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.
Potassium chloride (Vancouver) rose 5.4% to US $961 / ton this week, while potassium chloride (60% powder, Qinghai) remained 3900 yuan / ton. The price of potash fertilizer in major regions of the international market has risen again. According to Baichuan Yingfu, only a small number of suppliers can meet the market demand, and some markets are still trying to find a balance between buying and selling quotations. In China, on the demand side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. The recent release of national reserve of potash fertilizer will support the purchase demand of downstream raw materials; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the State Reserve will release goods in batches in the near future, but the spot in the market is still in short supply. The early maintenance manufacturers have basically resumed normal production, and a small number have not started work, but the manufacturer’s inventory remains low and the supply is in short supply. In terms of ports, some ports affected by the epidemic have suspended shipments.
Shandong’s delivery was blocked, the market supply was tight, and the price of liquid chlorine rose.
Liquid chlorine (Shandong) rose 125.0% to 1800 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, due to the obstruction of delivery in eastern Shandong, the downstream of Hebei was transferred to Western Shandong to get the goods. Due to epidemic factors, the downstream of Fujian had chlorine consumption and reduced the negative operation, and the demand for liquid chlorine was general; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, at present, some areas are under pressure for shipment due to poor transportation. Enterprises in Weifang have reduced load operation, enterprises in Tangshan, Hebei have reduced load maintenance, the supply of liquid chlorine Market in Northwest China is limited, enterprises in Northeast Liaoning have tightened the supply of liquid chlorine due to covid-19 epidemic, serious public safety and health incidents in Jiaozuo, Henan, central China, strict traffic control, and individual enterprises have reduced load operation, The supply of goods decreased. In order to avoid the negative operation of liquid chlorine inventory pressure, enterprises in East China and Zhejiang did not have much liquid chlorine supply in Jiangsu.
The epidemic affected transportation and pushed up the price of acetic acid.
Acetic acid (East China) rose 15.1% to 5350 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current start-up of downstream products has little change compared with the previous stage; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, more maintenance enterprises have been added to the acetic acid supply this week, which is good. In addition, the current epidemic is frequent nationwide, many places are concentrated and isolated, the logistics transportation is affected to a certain extent, and it is difficult to transport across provinces in some areas.
The downstream demand is stable, the market supply decreases, and the price of o-nitrochlorobenzene rises.
Nitrobenzene rose to 14.3% to 12000 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the demand of downstream pharmaceutical and dye industries is stable, and the pesticide industry purchases on demand; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the overall supply in the current market is reduced, the inventory is tight, the units of Jiangsu manufacturers are shut down, the units of Anhui manufacturers are under commissioning, and other manufacturers are stably started.
The cost is strongly supported, the supply of low-cost goods is difficult to find, and the price of phosphorus trichloride rises.
Phosphorus chloride (99%, Jiangsu) rose 10.0% to 11000 yuan / ton on Wednesday. On the cost side, yellow phosphorus (Guizhou) rose 10.8% to 36000 yuan / ton this week, and liquid chlorine (Shandong) rose 125.0% to 1800 yuan / ton. Under the support of cost, phosphorus trichloride enterprises have raised prices one after another; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current new order negotiation is cautious; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current mainstream enterprises start stably and mainly issue orders.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the downstream demand is less than expected.
