General view and recommendation of the industry: Securities Companies: frequent policies, optimistic about the long-term development of securities companies. ① A series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) have been introduced one after another, which is beneficial to ficc, wealth management and the industrial chain of large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center has increased: the wealth management business has continued to grow, and the channels, products and investment advisers have benefited deeply; The scale of derivatives maintained rapid growth, new products were launched one after another, the superposition system continued to be standardized, and ficc constituted the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increment. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (20152016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies. Insurance: interest rates stabilize and valuation repair is imminent. ① Property insurance, auto insurance and non car co frequency resonance, the competition pattern has stabilized, and the advantages of leading insurance enterprises have expanded. One year after the comprehensive reform of auto insurance, the year-on-year growth of premium income has been significantly improved. At the same time, the premium of non auto insurance has continued to increase; In the medium and long term, the scale effect will be further strengthened. Leading insurance companies are expected to further expand their profit space and strengthen competitive barriers by virtue of their advantages in rates, channels and brands. ② In the short term, due to the contradiction between supply and demand of the industry, the pressure on the liability side of life insurance is significant. Under the background of stabilizing the interest rate on the investment side, the “policy bottom” of real estate has been established. In order to ensure the steady development of real estate, there are signs of relaxation of real estate financing conditions, and the risk of venture capital real estate investment has been mitigated. In view of the trend of “asset driven and healthy” restructuring of China’s life insurance industry, it is expected that the “asset driven and healthy” development of China’s life insurance industry will be gradually promoted in the long run, with the gradual improvement of the “asset driven and healthy” trend of asset driven and healthy development of China’s life insurance industry. Soochow Bank of Africa’s recommended sectors: securities, insurance, recommended stock combinations [China stock market news], [ China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) ] (Hong Kong stocks), [China Property Insurance] and [far east Hongxin].
Important changes and comments in the industry: 1) comments on China Property Insurance 2021 annual report: ① according to the property insurance roe framework we built, the company’s roe decreased slightly from 11.6% in 2020 to 11.3% in 2021; ② The underwriting performance of auto insurance is better than the market expectation; ③ The catastrophe dragged down the loss ratio, and the underwriting loss of non vehicle business increased in the second half of the year; ④ In 2021, the total investment income was 26.154 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. The proportion of investment income in pre tax profit increased from 83.1% in 2020 to 94.2%, consolidating pre tax profit. 2) China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) 2021 annual report comments: ① the difficulty of long-term insurance sales has increased, which has dragged down the growth of new orders and premiums; ② The growth of individual insurance channels was weak, and the contribution of Bancassurance increased; ③ The return on net investment rose against the trend and the proportion of stock based allocation decreased; ④ Value growth is under pressure. 3) Comments on Zhong’an online’s 2021 annual report: ① steady growth of premium and continuous improvement of technology revenue; ② Positive underwriting profit + bright investment income, and high return to parent net profit; ③ Healthy and digital life ecology make concerted efforts, and the output of science and technology continues to expand, creating a unique competitive advantage.
Risk tips: 1) the macro economy is less than expected; 2) Policy tightening inhibits industry innovation; 3) Market competition intensifies risks.
